NHL Draft: High Hopes

Draft picks

The popular yarn right now is that teams need to get early round picks and draft stars to be a contender.

There’s no real timeframe for when a team acquires those early round stars and no real definition of what a contender is.

That’s the beauty of it, it’s irrefutable due to its lack of specifics.

The Penguins drafted Sidney Crosby first overall in 2005 and made the Finals in 2008. The Penguins won their first Crosby-Era cup in 2009.

The Washington Capitals drafted Alex Ovechkin first overall in 2004 and won the Cup in their only trip beyond the second round in 2018.

There’s no rhyme or reason to how the “tank” pays off, it just does…well…sometimes.

When it doesn’t, it’s not the tank that failed, it something else.

Edmonton and Toronto for example are still waiting for that tank payoff.

When a team fails to get that tank bounce, it’s typically blamed on goaltending, or defense, or the lack of “forward depth.”

Forward depth is typically invoked when the tank stars disappear in the playoffs. See if your star player goes pointless in three straight games resulting in elimination, it’s the failure of the fourth line.

The team’s 100 point stud has one point through six games, but it’s everyone else who is slacking.

But what of this idea that tanking equals success? Sure, it can work, especially without time constraints. Tampa Bay drafted Stamkos first in 2008. They made it to the Finals in 2015 and raised the Cup in 2020 and 2021. Patrick  Kane was drafted first overall in 2007. Chicago picked up their first Cup in 2010 and lifted their third in 2015 as Stamkos watched.

The Nature of Draft Picks

What no one wants to talk about, or what folks want to gloss over, is the nature of draft picks.

In the 15 drafts from 2004 through 2018, the first overall pick has been the top point producer for their draft class 8 out of 15 times, 53.3%. A goaltender was not chosen first in any of those years. Teams have slightly better odds than a coin toss at landing that dominant player at first overall.

The Oilers have drafted 1st overall four times in the span, including three consecutive years in 2010, 2011, 2012 and then in 2015. The 2012 selection, Nail Yakupov, being the only miss. Yet the Oilers struggle even with six more top 10 picks in the 15-year period.

That’s not to say the Oilers aren’t an entertaining franchise, they absolutely are. Boasting two of the best forwards in hockey they are must-watch tv.

Welcome to the Gray Area

We now come to the gray area that is “success.”

If championships are the measure, Edmonton has come up short as have the Leafs and most certainly the Sabres. Still other teams far earlier in their tank timelines must be of concern too. Will the Rangers who started out tanking but opted to double-down on veteran talent find any success? Are they still a tank team after the roster revamp?

What of Buffalo? Six top 10 picks since 2004. 17 first round picks, 19 second round picks, 16 third round picks.

By every imaginable measure Buffalo is the poster child for the “just be bad and collect picks and voila, success!”.

Of course the Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in 12 straight years and their star is a late first round pick made by another team.

It’s Not Where, It’s Who

In the end it’s not where you draft as much as it is who. There’s absolutely a benefit to drafting first, especially in a “generational” draft class. However, thanks to the lottery, there’s little way to ensure you wind up with that pick.

Setting your organization up for failure and walking away with the 2, 3, 4, 5 pick does what?

Flyers fans should be numb from second overall pick drama at this point. Walking away with another JVR or Nolan Patrick would be a miserable payoff in any year. Let alone one you intentionally tried to bottom out in.

There will be an under performer in this year’s top five. There always is. Not once in the 15 years we are looking at have each of the top five picks been top five point producers for their class. Only once have the top five picks been top 10 point producers.

That was in 2009.

Make no mistake when people talk about drafting stars. They’re talking about point producers.

Sean Couturier picked eighth in 2011, is ninth in points and 10th in games played for his draft class. Couturier shadows second overall pick Gabriel Landeskog nicely, who is seventh in points and eighth in games played.

To read Flyers’ news and opinions you’d think Couturier was a bad pick. Couturier sits 12 seasons deep and while his injury situation is most unfortunate, 12 years out is pretty much the cup window for names like Ovechkin, Stamkos and Landeskog.

Can’t Hardly Wait

Do the Flyers faithful have the patience for how far down the road the payoff can be?

If Couturier is any indicator, no.

Flyers fans by and large want the Chicago/Pittsburgh turnaround but those expectations seem highly unrealistic given the waits for many of the other examples cited by the tank positive crew.

In the 15 seasons between 2004 and 2018, 75 players were drafted in the top five. Of those, 38 are also top five in point production for their draft year. That’s a whopping 51%.

If we open to top 10 in point production, we get 49 players qualifying. That’s 11 more players, but 75 more scoring spots. Now we’re hitting at about 33%.

High draft spots alone guarantee little.

Since we opened it up to top 10 point producers, what happens if we open it up to top 10 picks? Of the 150 players drafted top 10, 76 finish top 10 in point production for their draft year. Putting us once more at 51%.

The draft at its highest end, remains a coin toss.

Patience wins out.

Something Flyers fans have lacked for generations.

Anthony Chatburn is a Contributor for HW Hockey
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