There is a lot of talk about tanking and draft picks circling Philadelphia Flyers twitter these days. So why should they?
The mob mentality that pushes tanking always talks about having 18 chances at the first-overall-pick being better than having three and that is true but it’s also the worst argument you can make for wanting to be the worst team in the league – intentionally.
For a lot of older fans, tanking has a very specific callback. The 1984 Lemieux draft that saw the Penguins and Devils actively try to ice non-competitive teams during the season in order to secure the first-overall-pick. Of course in 1984 there was no lottery and the only variable was how bad your team was willing to be.
What’s different today?
Today’s NHL puts a monkey wrench in the whole tanking process. I believe it’s one of few positives that’s come from Gary Bettman’s tenure as NHL Commisioner.
Finishing last in 2023 gives you an 18.5% chance at winning the NHL Draft Lottery, but more importantly, it gives you a 25.5% chance of retaining the first-overall-pick. The worst team in hockey doesn’t need to win the lottery to draft first, it can retain the first-overall-pick if teams 12 through 16 win the lottery as well. That sounds great right?
What’s the catch?
The catch to this argument, one lots of folks with blue checks and large followings never want to acknowledge, is that while the worst team in hockey has 18.5% (let’s call it 19%) chances to win the lottery and another seven perfect to retain the pick without winning. That means there are 10 other teams with a combined 74 out of 100 chances to steal the first-overall-pick.
Consider the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery, the McDavid Draft. Buffalo was the worst team in the league and they had a 25% chance of winning the lottery. The Oilers with the third best chance at 18.8% to win that lottery, drafted McDavid.
Buffalo ended up second with Eichel and Arizona ended up with Dylan Strome.
Dylan Strome, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel
Fun Stat Nugget anyone?
Connor McDavid has more career goals and points than Eichel and Strome combined. Kinda puts some perspective on the “well even if they don’t keep the first-overall-pick, there’s still lots of talent at the top of the draft” reasoning so many offer when pressed on tanking.
The expectation for every NHL franchise and for any franchise worth investing time, effort, and dollars in should be to ice a competitive product. In Philadelphia the Flyers have shown a desire to improve as they sit six points out of a playoff spot while also being the 10th worst team in the league, all while still having a toe in the water for that first-overall-pick which will undoubtedly be Connor Bedard.
Asking a club to lose games in the hopes that they draft a player, no matter how gifted, is a recipe for disaster. Edmonton having drafted Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still chasing playoff relevance and the Buffalo Sabres, who have drafted top 10 in each of the last 10 years (top three in four of those years), are currently outside the playoffs and five points ahead of Philly.
In conclusion, the draft, even the best draft, does not catapult a franchise to relevance on its own.
Anthony Chatburn is a Contributor for HW Hockey
Photo: NHL.com
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I’d argue that hiring Torts happened a year to soon. I know it’s about opportunity and windows and stuff, but Torts pushing a mediocre (at best) roster in a year that’s being called a “generational draft” seems to me like another Chuck flub.
The team is nowhere near ready to compete. I don’t like tanking, however, taking the step of hiring a coach that is renowned for squeezing more talent from rosters than others seems foolhardy. What scares me is Chuck might still have the “all we have to do is get healthy” mindset, as if getting Cam and Coots back suddenly flips the contender switch. Spoiler: it won’t.