NHL DFS Environmental Study

NHL DFS Environmental Study for February 10, 2022

Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.

New Jersey Devils vs St. Louis Blues 

• Total: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6.5 

The New Jersey Devils (16-26-5) prepare for a matchup with the St. Louis Blues (26-13-5) after beating up on the Canadiens 7-1 a few days ago. Since returning from the all-star break the Devils have seen 8 goals in two of their three games. 

Their mediocre shooting percentage (7.2% 23^rd) is limiting a Devils offense that generates consistent pressure, ranking 7^th in SCF (1075, 22.87/game) and 5^th in HDF (330, 7.02/game). With a healthy shot volume (1490, 31.7/game) and a fair amount PPO (126, 2.68/game) this is an underrated offense that can take advantage of vulnerable defenses. 

With an embarrassing save percentage (.905, 31^st) and just average team defense, rankings of 15^th in SCA (1004, 21.36/game) and 21^st in HDA (282, 6/game), New Jersey allows their opponents to capitalize frequently on their opportunities. They don’t deal with too many PPOA (125, 2.65/game) but they do still allow plenty of shots against (1435, 30.53/game). 

This is the Blues’ first game since the break, heading into the all-star game they alternated wins and losses in their last four. St. Louis has seen their games feature 5+ goals in six of their last seven, including three games with 8+ goals. 

While the Blues are generating offensive chances at just a middling rate, 15^th in SCF (964, 21.9/game) and 27^th in HDF (260, 5.9/game), their pristine shooting efficiency (8.8% 4^th) allows them to make the most of the chances they do get. They’re drawing penalties at a solid rate, giving themselves a good amount of PPO (130, 2.95/game) to go along with respectable shot volume (1361, 30.93/game). 

Defensively the Blues are the sort of team that even the most hapless offenses can find success against, ranking 5^th in SCA (1073, 24.38/game) and 7^th in HDA (323, 7.34/game). They face only a slightly elevated amount of PPOA (127, 2.88/game) but allow a tasty amount of shots against (1420, 32.27/game). Only their impressive save percentage (.928 9^th) bails them out. 

Both of these teams have significant flaws defensively which should allow these above average offenses to find their ceilings tonight and drive up the scoring. 

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames 

• Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6.5 

Riding a three game winning streak coming out of the all-star break and fresh off of a 6-0 shellacking of the Knights, the Calgary Flames (24-13-6) host the Toronto Maple Leafs (30-10-3) tonight. Eight of the Flames last nine games have featured 6+ goals. 

Calgary boasts elite level even strength scoring opportunity numbers, ranking 6^th in SCF (1079, 25.09/game) and 11^th in HDF (301, 7/game), while also putting themselves on the man advantage at a decent rate, PPO (125, 2.9/game). Their mouth watering shot volume (1560. 36.27/game) allows them to overcome a disappointing shooting percentage (7.3% 19^th). 

The Flames are one of the best teams at limiting their opponents chances, ranking 30^th in SCA (846, 19.67/game) and 31^st in HDA (239, 5.55/game), in addition to possessing one of the best save percentages (.932 3^rd) in the league. A depressed amount of shots against (1254, 29.16/game) and a standard amount of PPOA (123, 2.86/game) reinforce just how good this defense is. 

The Leafs enter tonight’s matchup red hot having won six in a row and seven of their last eight games have seen 7+ goals. 

With rankings of 3^rd in SCF (1145, 26.62/game) and 6^th in HDF (329, 7.65/game) there are few teams that can keep up with the Leafs offensively. Add in an above average shooting percentage (8.3% 11^th) and a tantalizing shot volume (1472, 34.23/game) and the ceiling for this offense is unmatched. Their middle of the road amount of PPO (122, 2.83/game) neither helps or hinders their potential. 

A save percentage (.923, 18^th) in the bottom half of the league is on par for this defense as a whole. They also rank 21^st in SCA (947, 22.02/game) and 23^rd in HDA (276, 6.41/game), while giving their opponents a routine amount of chances with the man advantage, PPOA (116, 2.69/game). With a moderately heightened amount of shots against (1323, 30.76/game) nothing particularly stands out about this defense. 

This game pits two of the best offenses in the league against each other and while neither defense is particularly weak, or in the Flames case no weaknesses at all, expect both of these offenses to raise their games and put on a show tonight.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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