Tuesday’s picks went quite well, going 7 for 8 in those picks. The only plays I did not take on Tuesday were Tavares and Larkin, which both won. I finished the day +1.75u overall, but obviously could’ve easily been higher had I parlayed those last two players. I also stupidly threw a parlay on Tatar/Kessel points last second, which didn’t play out. I need to stop doing that shit.

Let’s dive into today’s picks…

Pick #1 – Aleksander Barkov o3.5 Shots (-112 BS)

The Florida Panthers are incredible at home when it comes to shots for, averaging 40.8 shots per game. Overall, they average 40.4 shots per game, which is good for 1st in the NHL. On Tuesday I went with Bennett and Verhaeghe, but today I like the chances for Barkov. He has a hit rate of 63% for over 3.5 shots and has hit at home in 5 of 7 games. He is also a perfect 5/5 in his last 5 games.

Pick #2 – Noah Dobson o2.5 Shots (-125 BS)

Noah Dobson has been a guy to target for a while now, but it looks like the betting apps have just started making his lines available. Dobson has a 53% hit rate this season and is a perfect 5/5 in his last 5 games. He is also very good on the Powerplay and is up there in shots for his team while on the man advantage. He plays the Predators tonight who have allowed 32.6 shots per game.

Pick #3 – Joe Pavelski o2.5 Shots (+130 DK)

While the Panthers get a lot of shots at home, they also give up a lot of shots, averaging 33 shots allowed per game. Joe Pavelski has a hit rate of 43%, which doesn’t scream lock; however, he has been a much better shooter recently, hitting in each of his last three games. I like shot props all around in this game and at +130, this is definitely worth a look.

Pick #4 – Nikita Kucherov o2.5 Shots (-182 BS)

Kucherov has been such a monster recently. Hitting o2.5 shots in 8 straight games and o3.5 in 6 of those 8 games. Overall, he has a hit rate of 81% for o2.5 shots and 56% for o3.5 shots. I like his chances of hitting over 2.5 tonight and will pair him with the reasonably priced Tippett, who has also been a shot prop monster this season. If you are looking for a o3.5 line, DraftKings has him at -110, but I honestly like Stamkos more, who is +120 and has a 69% hit rate at that number.

Pick #5 – Owen Tippett o2.5 Shots (+100 BS)

I was generally surprised to see Tippett at plus-money, given that he has hit o2.5 shots in 9/11 games (82%). I think the lines look decent for the Flyers tonight because we’re playing the Bruins, which makes sense, but I am going to look past that because he has been so good at hitting this prop this season. I paired him with Kucherov tonight.

Pick #6 – Mike Hoffman o2.5 Shots (-105 DK)

I feel like you have to target the Columbus Blue Jackets, given all their injuries. They also allow the 2nd most shots against in the NHL, averaging 36.2 shots/game. Hoffman has a hit rate of 50% this season and has hit rate of 70% in his last 10 games.

Pick #7 – Vladimir Tarasenko o2.5 Shots (-145 DK)

Vladimir Tarasenko has a hit rate of 60% this season and is playing the Washington Capitals tonight, who have allowed 36 shots per game on the road. Tarasenko also averages 3.5 shots per game at home, which is much better than his overall average of 2.9 shots/game. I like his chances tonight and will be pairing him with Hoffman.

Betting Summary

1. Barkov o3.5 Shots (-112) 1u
2. Noah Dobson o2.5 Shots (-125) 1u
3. Joe Pavelski o2.5 Shots (+130) 1u
4. Kucherov/Tippett Shots (+210) .5u
5. Hoffman/Tarasenko Shots (+229) .5u

(Photo Creds – Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images)

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