The Crease Report for March 2, 2022

The Crease Report finds the best goaltending values on a given slate by look at a goalie’s own metrics and the quality of team defense played in front of them. Team shot maps, shots against (SA), scoring chances against (SCA) and high danger chances against (HDA) are all weighed and considered to determine the best matchups. In addition to the individual goaltenders and their team defense, their opponent’s offense is examined as well, using the team shot map, shots for (S), scoring chances for (SCF) and high danger chances for (HDF). Ideally we’re looking for goaltenders that play on teams with a moderate amount of shots against but low amounts of scoring chances against and high danger chances against, and an opponent with high shot volume but low scoring chances for and high danger chances for

Nashville Predators vs Seattle Kraken 

• Juuse Saros (25-16-3) GAA 2.46 SV% .923 SO 2 QS 29 
• David Rittich (4-2-1) GAA 3.17 SV% .890 SO 0 QS 2 

Juuse Saros has been a work horse for the Predators this season, playing in 44 of their 53 games. With four days between games for the Preds is likely that Saros patrols the crease again tonight against the Kraken. In his last outing Saros stopped 30 of 33 Tampa Bay Lightning shots but didn’t get enough offensive support for the victory. 

Nashville plays excellent defense allowing just 20.43 SCA and 5.58 HDA on average, while still facing over thirty shots against (31.88) per game. The Predators shot map supports those numbers, Nashville forces teams to take the majority of their shots from above the faceoff circles and with the exception of the right faceoff dot there is almost no locations near their crease that opponents get chances.

The Kraken bring an offense into this contest that wouldn’t intimidate a mite team, averaging 18.78 SCF and 5.49 HDF and very few of the shots they take come from dangerous scoring areas. Despite the lack of quality shots however Seattle does manage to get a fair amount of shots (1556, 28.29/game) on net, giving Saros a very solid ceiling in this one. As you can see from their map their only heightened shot volume is well back by the blue line. 

With his team giving up a good amount of shots and his opponents managing a respectable shot volume as well, Saros has a chance at 30+ saves tonight. The majority of the shots he faces will most likely come from high in the zone or along the boards, Saros is likely to be the highest scoring goalie on the slate tonight. 

Los Angeles Kings vs Dallas Stars 

• Jonathan Quick (14-11-6) GAA 2.67 SV% .909 SO 2 QS 16 
• Calvin Petersen (14-7-1) GAA 2.68 SV% .898 SO 1 QS 13 

The Kings have been using a 60/40 split with their goaltenders so be sure to pay attention to who gets named the starter prior to puck drop, but the level of play barely changes regardless of who’s between the pipes. While LA did just get beat up to the tune of 7 goals against, that was very much an outlier. In his last full game Petersen stopped 26 of 28 shots and helped the Kings to a 5-2 win over the Islanders, while Quick saved 24 of 25 Anaheim shots as LA won 4-1 in his last full game. 

LA’s scoring chance numbers are little high for absolute comfort, 21.81 SCA and 6.4 HDA per game, and you’d like to see a few more shots against (1533, 28.38) but on a smaller slate like tonight there’s only so many options. Their shot map shows how they are allowing teams to get chances in close and part of that falls on the goalies lack of rebound control. However when Quick or Petersen is on their game those rebounds disappear and opponents are left frustrated.

The Dallas offense is basically the other side of the same coin from the Kings defense, with averages of 21.82 SCF and 6.59 HDF. Their shot volume (1585, 30.48/game) is just high enough to give Quick/Petersen a good ceiling today. The shot map does offer a little more optimism though, with fair amount of their shots coming from along the boards the Stars do throw some low percentage shots on net.

There is certainly risk playing the Kings goalies tonight but they’ve both proven to be able to get hot and smother opponents on multiple occasions this year. Regardless of who gets the start there is a ton a value to be had in this one. 

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
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