The Crease Report finds the best goaltending values on a given slate by look at a goalie’s own metrics and the quality of team defense played in front of them. Team shot maps, shots against (SA), scoring chances against (SCA) and high danger chances against (HDA) are all weighed and considered to determine the best matchups. In addition to the individual goaltenders and their team defense, their opponent’s offense is examined as well, using the team shot map, shots for (S), scoring chances for (SCF) and high danger chances for (HDF). Ideally we’re looking for goaltenders that play on teams with a moderate amount of shots against but low amounts of scoring chances against and high danger chances against, and an opponent with high shot volume but low scoring chances for and high danger chances for.
New Jersey Devils Goalies vs Arizona Coyotes
- Mackenzie Blackwood: GP 22 SV% .898 GAA 3.24 QS 8
Mackenzie Blackwood hasn’t played since January 8 and is expected back when the Devils host the Coyotes tonight. While Blackwood’s numbers are less than stellar on the year he has had some very good games against poor competition, 24.2 DK points against the Blue Jackets on 1/6 and 27.5 DK points versus the Flyers on 12/08.
New Jersey is allowing 6.02 HDA and 21.35 SCA a game while still giving up 30.67 shots against. Now the Devils are allowing quite a few shots from the high slot but they do an excellent job keeping teams from getting opportunities in close. They’re also forcing a lot of low percentage shots from high above the face off circles and the point.
Arizona is exactly the type of low level opponent Blackwood has found success against this season. The Coyotes are averaging just 5.32 HDF and an abysmal 17.59 SCF per game. Their underwhelming shot volume (972, 26.27/game) does put a cap on Blackwood’s ceiling tonight. But very few of those shots are ever of the high danger variety as the majority of their shots on goal are from high in the zone between the top of the face off circles and the blue line.
Because the Coyotes likely won’t pepper him with an excessive number of shots the 35+ save bonus seems unlikely but with a sound team defense in front of him and likely to just be dealing with long range shots from the edges of the zone a shutout is in play tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies vs New York Rangers
- Jack Campbell: GP 28 SV% .931 GAA 2.13 QS 20
Campbell has been playing very good hockey all season for the Leafs and there’s not much reason to doubt him in this game against the Rangers. Campbell has put up 17+ DK points in five of his last six appearances. He is coming off a game against the Blues where he only put up 2.5 DK points but the less time he scored less than 3 DK points he bounced back with a 35 save, 30 DK point performance the following game.
While their team defense isn’t amazing it’s certainly better than it has been in recent seasons, averaging 6.38 HDA and 22.05 SCA with 31.13 shots against per game. The shots the Leafs allow are scattered throughout the zone, with elevated volume from the points and the slot, but they do a good job limiting opposing teams shots anywhere around the crease.
The Rangers offense is creating only 6.12 HDF and a dismal 18.74 SCF per game but their shot volume (1108, 28.41/game) still offers a chance for a ceiling performance for their opposing goalies. New York does manage to create a heightened amount of shots from the slot but that’s about it. Their only other hot spots are along the right side boards and point.
Campbell should see a fair amount of shots tonight and will have another chance to reach the 30 point mark. It might be a bit of a long shot for the 35+ save bonus but it’s not out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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