The Crease Report for January 13, 2022

The Crease Report finds the best goaltending values on a given slate by look at a goalie’s own metrics and the quality of team defense played in front of them. Team shot maps, shots against (SA), scoring chances against (SCA) and high danger chances against (HDA) are all weighed and considered to determine the best matchups. In addition to the individual goaltenders and their team defense, their opponent’s offense is examined as well, using the team shot map, shots for (S), scoring chances for (SCF) and high danger chances for (HDF). A teams’ xGF/60, expected goals for per sixty minutes and xGA/60, expected goals against per sixty minutes, will also be factored in. Ideally we’re looking for goaltenders that play on teams with a moderate amount of shots against but low amounts of scoring chances against and high danger chances against, and an opponent with high shot volume but low scoring chances for and high danger chances for.

Nashville Predators Goalies vs  Buffalo Sabres

Juuse Saros: GP 30 SV% .937 GAA 2.27 QS 23

David Rittich: GP 6 SV% .884 GAA 3.04 QS  1

Saros has been an absolute stud all year as evidenced by his quality start percentage being north of 75% and is likely to get another start again tonight. He has had less than 28 DK points just once in his last 5 games and today’s matchup against the Sabres sets up beautifully for another ceiling performance from him.

Defensively Nashville is allowing 31.21 shots against a game and their shot map shows that they’re allowing an amount of shots from the slot and in front of the net that’s well below league average. The majority of the shots they face are of the low percentage variety from above the face off circles. The Preds are smothering opposing offenses, allowing just 20.59 SCA and 5.4 HDA per game.

Only mustering a paltry 18.31 SCF and 4.94 HDF per game the Sabres offense is among the worst in the league. Despite a lack of quality scoring chances Buffalo does have a decent shot volume (29.28/game). Their shot chart shows an almost perfect mirror image of Nashville’s defensive shot chart, the Sabres get few chances from the slot or in front of the net and a heightened amount of shots from the point and above the face off circles.

Saros is set up for success tonight and has a great chance to not only pick up a win but also the 35+ save bonus and a shutout.

Chicago Blackhawks Goalies vs Montreal Canadiens

Marc-Andre Fleury: GP 24 SV% .910 GAA 2.88 QS 13

Kevin Lankinen: GP 11 SV% .884 GAA 3.43 QS 3

There’s no denying that the great Marc-Andre Fleury appears to have slowed down a bit in the twilight of his career. But with quality starts in over half his games and a sub 3.00 GAA, he’s proven to still be an effective netminder and can take advantage of a great matchup.

The Blackhawks keep opposing offenses mostly at bay allowing just 22 SCA and 5.8 HDA per game. However they still face a fair amount of shots against (31.58/game). Chicago doesn’t allow many shots from the slot or in close in front of the net. They also force low angled shots from the bottom of the face off circles and the goal line.

With just a middling amount of SCF (20.68/game) and an above average amount of HDF (6.51/game) the Canadiens offense isn’t striking fear in the hearts of many teams. But with a respectable shot volume (29.28/game) they are still getting low percentage chances on net. Their shot map is scattered all over the offensive zone, they get few shots in close by the crease, a fair amount of shots from the slot but increased odd angled attempts from beneath the face off circles.

The is a matchup the Blackhawks can pick up a win for Fleury and Fleury also has a good chance at the 35+ save bonus.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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