Shot Attempts-Thru Percentage Model

In the Shot Attempts-Thru Percentage Model we’ll examine players that are getting a higher amount of shot attempts (SA) and their thru percentage (Thru%) to identify those players getting shot attempts to the net but aren’t scoring goals at a level consistent with with the number of attempts they’re taking. Shooting percentage (Shoot%) and shots on goal (S) will also contribute to this model as well. What we’re trying to identify here is players that might be overlooked or underpriced on a daily fantasy sports (DFS) slate but are primed for spiked performances. This is similar to how air yards models are used for fantasy football.

Patrick Kane vs Columbus Blue Jackets

SA – 214 (9th) Thru%- 52.8% Shoot%- 6.2% S- 113 (14th)

Kane’s current shooting percentage is 5.5 points lower than his career average (11.7%) and he’s only finished below 9% once in his fourteen year career. He’s also top ten in shot attempts and top fifteen in shots on goal and with a thru% north of 50% it shows that he’s getting more chances than not on net. Also on his side tonight is his opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets, averaging 34.84 shots against per game. Kane won’t be cheap but he hasn’t scored in twelve games so his ownership should be suppressed.

Nathan MacKinnon vs Nashville Predators

SA – 180 (32nd) Thru%- 56.1% Shoot%- 5% S- 101 (37th)

MacKinnon has been the star of the Avalanche’s offense for years now, and he’s pushing 200 shot attempts and a thru% closer to 60% than 50%. Mackinnon is getting his shots on net at one of the best rates in the league. While Nashville is sound defensively MacKinnon is a world class talent and the Preds are allowing over thirty shots on goal a game (30.86). MacKinnon has gotten hot recently which means he will be expensive to fit into lineups.

Brent Burns vs Detroit Red Wings

SA – 206 (12th) Thru%- 47.1% Shoot%- 4.1% S- 97 (45th)

Burns is one of the most gifted defensemen in the league and has been a staple of the Sharks offense for years. Defensemen in general have lower thru% because the majority of their shots come from the point but Burns is still pushing 50%. With shot attempts inside the top fifteen and a shooting percentage below 5% Burns is ready for a spike, also working in his favor is that the Red Wings are allowing 33.22 shots against per game, 24.02 scoring chances against per game and 7.5 high danger chances against per game. Burns just picked up three assists but has only scored 2 goals in his last eleven games.

These individuals shouldn’t be used to build entire lineups around but instead should be used as potential one off plays to fill out lineups. Kane and MacKinnon won’t be cheap options but might come with lower ownership due to their higher price tag. Burns ownership on a smaller slate might’ve gotten juiced but with a seven game slate there should be enough options to keep it in check.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
For more Flyers coverage, follow and subscribe to High & Wide Hockey on Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube!