Preference vs. Prediction Flyers Off-Season Part 3: Goalies, Draft, and Housekeeping

*knock*knock* Housekeeping!

Alright, here we go, the final edition of “Preference vs. Prediction”. I know you know the drill by now, but if you didn’t already, take a look at the first two editions covering my first 6 objectives for the Flyers this off season which highlight forwards and defensemen to stay updated.

Without further ado, let’s check out my last objectives for the Flyers this off season. Allow me to present to you objectives 7 through 10!

7: Flyers Tender their UFA’s and RFA’s

• Carter Hart

It is no secret that Carter Hart struggled last season, but he wasn’t the only one. The Flyer were especially bad on defensive side of things. It would be the same as giving him a rock and a slingshot and throwing him in the trenches of Saigon in 1975.

I don’t expect last season to contribute *too* *too* much towards Carter Hart’s value as an RFA, but his annual average could decrease by half a million or so. I  still believe he’s going to get paid as we would all assume and I believe it will be a shorter bridge deal. Look, Carter Hart is the least of my concerns. There is no doubt in my mind that he will bounce back next season.

• Travis Sanheim

Travis Sanheim is a different story. The 25 year old defenseman is already coming off his first short-term RFA deal and personally I can see Sanheim signing anywhere from a 1 year deal to a 4 year deal.

Sanheim struggled mightily last season, especially defensively. His skating looked choppy, his puck moving ability was stymied, and he didn’t look anything like the Sanheim that we saw in the 2020 playoffs. Maybe if he trained in the United States in the off season, it would’ve helped (Rolls eyes).

I’d imagine Sanheim gets another two year bridge deal, he will be a UFA after this contract.

• Samuel Morin

This one will sting for me. Sam Morin was one of the few bright spots that the Flyers had last season. He held his own defensively, played physical and didn’t look out of place coming off his major injuries. However, with that being said, with Cam York and Yegor Zamula pressing for roster spots, competition will be high and spots will be limited. As a UFA, it is tough for me to see Morin being offered a contract.

• Nolan Patrick

Oh HERE WE GO, BABY.

The most debated player on the Flyers roster, in a flash. Nolan Patrick, what on Earth do we do with you, my child. I want to believe in you. I wanted so badly for you to be good and to turn it around. However, less than 10 points in 50+ games last season is enough for me to say that I would not mind if we didn’t bring him back. There’s a moral victory with him nearly playing a whole season, but I think we’ve heard enough of that.

Ive already crucified this man enough and I hope a change of scenery will do him well if we do not bring him back. No need to say more. I would bring back Nolan on a one year deal for $1.048 million which just happens to be the NHL Qualifying Offer.

Preference:

The Flyers ideally bring back all four of these players. My ideal contracts for these players would be as follows:

Samuel Morin is re-signed for 2 years at $1.5 million AAV

Nolan Patrick is re-signed for 1 year at $1.048 million AAV (Qualifying Offer)

Travis Sanheim is re-signed for 2 years at $3.25 million AAV

Carter Hart is re-signed for 2 years at $3 million AAV

In a perfect world Nolan Patrick shows promise early in the year to make up ground on his trade value and the Flyers will be able to find a trade partner for him and he’ll have a new home by the trade deadline.

Prediction:

I believe that the Flyers will re-sign Sanheim, Patrick, and Hart. Unfortunately, do to the lack of roster space and the aforementioned rise of young defensemen like Yegor Zamula and Cam York, the Flyers will let Samuel Morin walk (just typing that stings, man).

Nolan Patrick is re-signed for 1 year at $1.048 million AAV (Qualifying Offer)

Travis Sanheim is re-signed for 2 years at $3.75 million AAV

Carter Hart is re-signed for 2 years at $3.50 million AAV

8: Flyers Dump 2/3 of their Bigger Contracts (Expansion Draft)

• James Van Riemsdyk

Good ole, JVR. My favorite. My emotions have never been more twisted by a single player more than they have been with JVR. I loved JVR early in his career with the Flyers. I was mad to see him traded in the infamous Luke Schenn trade with the Leafs and even remained a fan of his while with Toronto. Something changed for me once he was re-signed in Philadelphia, I wasn’t the most ecstatic and when I saw his new contract, I nearly jumped out of a window.

JVR was one of the most productive players in the NHL in the beginning of last season, but as we have come to know and expect, he regressed as the season continued. Van Riemsdyk is 32 years old and has 2 more years left at $7 million a season.

• Jakub Voracek

Along with Nolan Patrick, Jake Voracek’s continuance on the team has fans split. It has already been said via Elliotte Friedman that the Flyers plan to leave Voracek exposed for the upcoming Expansion Draft and if that fails, they will look for a different trade partner. Voracek has been an integral part of the team over the past decade but when it comes down to it, the team hasn’t relished in much of any success since he’s been with the team. A change up to current locker room core and culture could prove to be incredibly beneficial, also. Voracek is 32 years old and has 3 years left at $8.25 million a year.

Jake Voracek's name is being increasingly linked with the @SeattleKraken. There's also a report claiming both sides have discussed a need for a change of scenery. pic.twitter.com/AFTd8IlczD

— High & Wide Hockey | For Philadelphia Flyers Fans (@FlyersHW) July 10, 2021

• Shayne Gostisbehere

Yet another heavily debated name comes to the forefront. I have been a big a fan and supporter of Ghost throughout his time in Philadelphia. Shayne Gostisbehere was one of the most electric defensemen in the NHL since breaking into the league in 2015-16. His surge into the NHL came with a 15-game point streak, which was the 3rd longest streak in NHL Rookie history behind Teemu Selanne and Paul Stastny. Unfortunately, that same Ghost has been riddled by injuries, inconsistent playing time and documented confidence issues in the past few seasons.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Ghost is still a useful defenseman in this league and deserves a spot on most blue lines in the NHL. However, when you consider the fact that no other team picked Gostisbehere off waivers last season, his contract might be a little too rich for teams looking for top 6 defensemen. Gostisbehere is 28 years old and has 2 years left at $4.5 million a season.

Preference:

I would like Seattle to take James Van Riemsdyk during the Expansion Draft. It would free up a much needed $7 million off the books and will allow the Flyers to have space to add a younger scoring forward as opposed to holding on to JVR until he’s 34. I would also rather keep a better on ice product in Jake Voracek despite him being more expensive.

Ideally, I would like for Shayne Gostisbehere to be traded. Hopefully the Flyers can add to their blue line via trade or free agency and freeing the books of Gostisbehere’s contract would be most ideal.

Prediction:

PROTECTION LIST

• Carter Hart (G)
• Ivan Provorov (D)
• Travis Sanheim (D)
• Phil Myers (D)
• Claude Giroux (F) (NMC)
• Kevin Hayes (F) (NMC)
• Sean Couturier (F)
• Travis Konecny (F)
• Oskar Lindblom (F)
• Scott Laughton (F)
• Nolan Patrick (F)

EXEMPTION LIST

• Morgan Frost
• Cam York
• Joel Farabee
• Wade Allison

Due to the heavy rumors surrounding Jake Voracek to Seattle in the Expansion Draft, I would believe that would be the case. In order for Seattle to take Voracek and his $8.25 million cap hit, the Flyers may have to throw in a sweetener draft pick.

I do not think this *should* be the case given that Voracek is still a very productive player and Seattle will be required to reach the cap floor. I do still think that it will happen and if I were to guess, Seattle would need a 3rd round pick.

I think the Flyers also find a trade partner for defenseman, Shayne Gostisbehere. I would assume the Flyers will receive nothing more than a later pick.I’m thinking a 6th or 7th rounder.

9: Flyers & the 13th Overall Pick in the 2021 NHL Draft (Draft a Scoring Forward)

*Assuming the Flyers don’t trade the pick:

• Cole Sillinger

Many expect the Flyers to take Cole Sillinger in various mock drafts. He’s a big 6’4 center with playmaking ability, but of course, the knock on Sillinger is his skating ability. Personally when I hear “big forward” and “below average skating ability”, my mind immediately thinks to Isaac Ratcliffe. I do not think that is the case here though as scouts say the combination of Sillinger’s playmaking ability and accurate shot allow defensemen to respect his space.

• Chaz Lucius

MY GUY, CHAZ. Lucius is highly regarded as one of, if not, THE top scoring center with the best shot in the draft. That sentence alone fits the Flyers needs to a tee. The Flyers haven’t had a pure 35-40 goal scorer since Jeff Carter or Danny Briere. Lucius 100% is my go-to guy in this draft. The thing to worry about Lucius is he’s just coming off of a knee injury, but that doesn’t scare me. Not Cole Caufield-ing this again. Never again.

• Fabian Lysell

A smooth skating Swede with quick hands, quick feet? hmmmm say less. Although Lysell probably won’t be there at 13 overall, it doesn’t hurt to include him on this list because, well…on paper he sounds like a Flyers draft pick. Why, you might ask? The biggest knock on Lysell is his scoring and shooting ability. Ah, perfect, just what we need. Lysell isn’t my favorite but definitely not a bad prospect by any stretch. Lysell would be considered a high ceiling prospect with a couple years of development ahead of him…I’ll pass.

• Carson Lambos

Ah, a defenseman? Short and simple: No. We’ve spent the last decade drafting defensemen and the trajectories of most of them have been hindered in one way or another, especially after last season. Gostisbehere, Hagg, Morin, and even Sanheim all come to mind as question marks. At least we still have Provorov but even as the best player available, I prefer the Flyers pass on Lambos and draft a forward.

Preference:

The Flyers trade the 13th overall pick in a package to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Seth Jones.

If they were to keep the pick, my preference? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST DRAFT A SCORER. GOALS. FUN. GOALS ARE FUN. I would like the Flyers to draft Chaz Lucius.

Prediction:

The bottom line is: I would be very surprised if the Flyers kept their draft pick in this year’s draft. My prediction would be that the Flyers trade the 13th overall pick in a package to the Buffalo Sabres for Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart.

If they were to keep the pick, I think the Flyers would take a shot at drafting Cole Sillinger.

10: Flyers Sign a Backup Goalie

• Jonathan Bernier

I remember the Flyers were rumored to be interested in trading for Bernier when he was the backup goalie on the Kings, but nothing ever materialized as he was traded to Toronto. Last season Bernier recorded a .914 save % with a 2.99 GAA in 24 games played with the Detroit Red Wings. Bernier is far past his most productive years as he is entering his age 33 season but he’s a veteran that would still make sense for the Flyers to pursue. Bernier is coming off of a contract where he made $3 million a year but I would expect him to get around half of that on the open market.

• Antti Raanta

Aside from one season in 2017, Antti Raanta has never been a starter, however, he does have a career .919 save % and 2.46 GAA. Not overly impressive but when you look at Flyers goaltending last season, nothing is impressive. Thats not to say that we shouldn’t look for better options but as of now, unless you want to trade for better, the market is limited.

Last season, 32 year old Raanta posted a .905 Save % and a 3.36 GAA. Not great. But Raanta also brings veteran experience to play behind Carter Hart and wouldn’t be the worst option, although I hope the Flyers pursue better.

• Charlie Lindgren

One of my favorites and I really couldn’t tell you why. He doesn’t have experience. He doesn’t have a good track record but then again, he’s played in an organization with the best goaltender in the NHL for the past decade, so opportunity was never at an abundance. Lindgren is still younger at 27, he comes out of the U.S. Development Program and has been with the Montreal Canadiens his whole short career.

For his career, Lindgren has a .907 save % and an even 3.00 GAA in 24 games played. I know the Flyers aren’t in any position to take a risk at the backup goalie position with Hart’s play last season but if they were, I would prefer it would be on a guy like Lindgren.

Preference:

1. Charlie Lindgren
2. Antti Raanta
3. Jonathan Bernier

Ideally, the Flyers go younger for a backup goalie but with limited options on the market, any solidifer to play behind Hart will be alright with me.

Prediction:

The Flyers will sign Jonathan Bernier to a 2yr/$1.5 million AAV Contract. Charlie Lindgren and Antti Raanta sign elsewhere.

Let’s summarize and pull it all together! (Thank you for reading all 3 editions and bearing with me):

MY OVERALL PREFERENCE:

1st Line: Claude Giroux – Jack Eichel – Joel Farabee

2nd Line: Sam Reinhart – Sean Couturier – Jake Voracek

3rd Line: Oskar Lindblom – Kevin Hayes – Scott Laughton

4th Line: Wade Allison – Blake Coleman – Tyler Beruzzi

Nolan Patrick – Nicolas Aube-Kubel

1st Pair: Ivan Provorov – Seth Jones
2nd Pair: Travis Sanheim – Alec Martinez
3rd Pair: Cam York – Rasmus Ristolainen
Samuel Morin
Robert Hagg

Starter: Carter Hart

Backup: Charlie Lindgren

Travis Konecny is involved in a trade for either Seth Jones or Jack Eichel

Nolan Patrick signs a 1 year/$1 million Qualifying Offer

James Van Riemsdyk is taken by the Seattle Kraken during the Expansion Draft
Samuel Morin is re-signed to a 1-year/$1.5 million extension
Shayne Gostisbehere is traded for a 5th round or 6th round pick elsewhere
Justin Braun is also moved for a 6th round or 7th round pick or placed on waivers

MY OVERALL PREDICTION:

1st Line: Claude Giroux – Sean Couturier – Joel Farabee

2nd Line: Oskar Lindblom – Sam Reinhart – Jake Voracek

3rd Line: Wade Allison – Kevin Hayes – Scott Laughton

4th Line: James Van Riemsdyk – Blake Coleman – Nicolas Aube-Kubel

1st Pair: Ivan Provorov – Rasmus Ristolainen
2nd Pair: Travis Sanheim – Adam Larsson
3rd Pair: Justin Braun – Phil Myers
Robert Hagg
Cam York

Starter: Carter Hart

Backup: Jonathan Bernier

Travis Konecny is involved in a trade for a defenseman

Nolan Patrick signs a 1 year/$1 million Qualifying Offer

Jake Voracek is taken by the Seattle Kraken during the Expansion Draft
Samuel Morin is NOT Re-signed
Shayne Gostisbehere is traded for a 5th round or 6th round pick elsewhere

No matter how you analyze it or break it down, something that is uniform and common consensus is that a big change is needed for this team, a cosmetic face-lift, and just overall: a direction.

Assuming that divines go back to normal, if my predicted lineup is accurate, I believe the Flyers sneak into the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed. We can optimistically say that names like Carter Hart, Travis Sanheim and Phil Myers will not be as poor as they were last season and the hypothetical additions of Reinhart and Coleman will help aid the offense. Will this team get out of the first round? I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Will the vortex continue? Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading the “Preference vs. Prediction” series, all! I appreciate the comments and support.

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