Nick Seeler and Flyers Fans Infatuation with Draft Picks

Let’s talk Nick Seeler and the insane, yes insane, infatuation Philadelphia Flyers fans have with draft picks.

Any draft pick. seventh round? Cool! Conditional fifth in 2029? Awesome!

Nick Seeler is a 30 year old left-handed defensemen on an insanely cheap contract for one more season. He’s a solid bottom pair guy. Word came out that the Flyers weren’t looking to trade Seeler just to trade him, they’d need to be “blown away”.

The cool, awesome, neat-o subset of Flyers fandom was obviously emotional about this. With many a blue check (going need a new name for you guys once Elon nixes all those legacy checks) voices fanning the flames. Of course claiming the Flyers Front Office was making Seeler “too valuable to move”.

But Anth? When are you tying this into draft picks? 

Nick Seeler was drafted in the fifth round of 2011. Seventy percent of the fifth round of the 2011 draft failed to make the NHL. That’s 21 of 30 picks not playing a game in the league. Seventy-two of the 120 players drafted in rounds four, five, six, and seven, never played an NHL game. That’s sixty percent of picks. Hell forty percent of the picks made in 2011 failed to make the league! That percentage jumps to fifty percent or better in 2013 (it’s 48% in 2012).

From 2011 to 2020, 1,216 picks were made between the fourth and seventh rounds. NINE HUNDRED AND ONE (901) of those picks have never played a game in the NHL, that’s a failure rate of 74%. 

Ok, ok those are late round picks. Third round picks have to fare better, and Anth, you said you wouldn’t trade Seeler for less than a second round pick.

Moving on to the third round where only 27% of third round picks in 2011 failed to make the league, in 2012 only 40%, 2013 once again 40%, 2014 at 47%, 2015 at 53%,  2016 at 37%, and 2017 61%.

The 2017 NHL Draft has seen 12 third round picks play in the NHL. We’re five years removed from that draft and the yield on NHL “players” was TWELVE. The numbers only get worse from here, so no, a third round pick doesn’t make any sense as a return for a capable, cap-friendly, depth defensemen on a team with some serious concerns about the development of its blue-line.

How much worse? If we set the benchmark at 11 games played in the NHL, that 2017 stat goes from 12 picks who’ve played in the NHL to eight picks who played 11 or more games. That’s 23 picks who failed to play 11 games in the NHL or 74% of the picks in the round.

So the Flyers should trade all of their draft picks since none of them ever work out?!

Not at all. I’m saying fans need to come to terms with what a draft pick truly represents.

An ever decreasing chance at a roster-capable player.

Nick Seeler is a popular name right now, so he’s the focus. The problem with taking a third round pick for Seeler is that he still has a year left at $750,000. If he were on an expiring contract, the Flyers could absolutely take that third round pick and be happy.

As it is, they should be pushing for a second round pick. The worst case scenario should be that you end up with a quality guy who fits your system at a cap friendly price. In the meantime the Flyers can figure out if any of the kids are actually making the leap from prospect to NHL player.

You didn’t mention second round picks, so they must be good?

Second round picks are absolutely better than anything that comes after them but the only round that has any bankable consistency is the first round. Let’s look at the 10 drafts from 2011 through 2020. Thirty-eight percent of second round picks never play a game in the NHL. If you bump that to a minimum of 11 games played, forty-five percent of second round picks in the same span fail to meet the mark. In total 139 of 309 second round picks failed to play in at least 11 NHL games.

Eleven games shouldn’t be a tough number to beat, but it is.

James Van Riemsdyk

If the Flyers are retaining cap on Van Riemsdyk, some rumors have that as high as 50%, the return absolutely has to include a first round pick.

It’s not the Flyers’ job to help other teams sure up for a playoff run, play hardball.

Six percent of first round picks have failed to make the NHL in that 2011 to 2020 span, that’s 17 picks. Thirty picks have failed to play 11 games or more in the NHL, that includes the previously mentioned 17 if that wasn’t obvious. Van Riemsdyk is currently playing at a 20 goal, 50 point pace over 82 games.  

You want him for $3,500,000 to chase Lord Stanley’s Cup? That’s worth a first round pick or you can sign him as an unrestricted free-agent in the offseason.

The act of retaining cap, or simply having a low cap hit, has value in the league and the Flyers need to maximize it as the deadline approaches.

Cap-strapped contenders and pretenders need to pay the price for pieces if they are to make a push. Flyers fans need to come to terms  that every player is not an all-star. The bulk of every roster is made up of middle 6 or lesser forwards, and middle pair or lesser defensemen. Many of whom are guys drafted in the top 100 of their draft years.

Anthony Chatburn is a Contributor for HW Hockey
Photo: Heather Barry ©
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