NHL Draft: All That Glitters Isn’t Gold

The Flyers recent run of success has the fanbase in a tither. Let’s look at what’s on the line.

To hear it told by anyone with an “@”, the Flyers are quickly losing sight of any meaningful addition to the roster via the draft.

“You have to pick top five to realize draft success!” – many people I won’t put on blast here.

There’s a belief that prospects are infallible coming out of this draft and I’ve got no ill-will for any of these kids.

Not until they pull on an NHL sweater anyway.

We’ve been told for years how deep this draft is and how amazing the talent level is, but few people want the medicine that goes with the sugar.

As Flyers fans should know full well by now, prospects don’t always become the players we expect. More often than not they don’t reach the level of success we anticipate. This is largely because it’s a team game. This isn’t about any one player, but rather it’s about the perception of draft picks and what they produce.

Let’s talk draft picks.

We’re going to look at eight drafts from 2011 to 2018, with stats updated through Saturday, March 25.

Two of the top five picks in 2011 are top five in points for their draft year. Four of the top five are top 15 in points.

The top point-producer for the 2011 draft was taken at 58th overall and the second highest was taken at 104 overall.

The player taken first in 2011, is fifth in points for his draft year.

Six of the top 15 point-producers in the 2011 draft class were picked outside the top 15 and as late as 208th overall.

One of 2012’s top five picks has produced two points at the NHL level, the fourth overall pick.

Nine of the top 15 point-producers in the 2012 draft class come from outside the top 15 picks and going as late as 120th overall. Only two of the top five picks are in the top 15 in points. They’re picks three and five.

2013 NHL Draft

The 2013 Draft is much closer to expectations.

Not only do 10 of the top 15 picks appear as top 15 point-producers for the draft class, but three of the top five point-producers are top five picks. The first overall pick is the points leader for his draft year.

Still 2013 continues the trend of a top 15 pick dramatically underperforming expectations.

The 11 overall pick has produced just one point at the NHL level.

For Flyers fans this one hurt because it’s Sam Morin. It’s important to note that Morin isn’t a rarity in the sense that 2011 saw Colorado miss on Duncan Siemens at 11 and 2012 saw the Islanders miss on Griffin Reinhart at fourth overall.

2014 NHL Draft

Moving on to 2014 where eight of the top 15 point-producers for the draft class come from the top 15 picks. This includes four of the top five picks.

The top five point-producers for the draft year are picks 3, 25, 79, 2, and 15.

This draft year might give the best visualization of the idea that just having a top five or top 15 pick doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed greatness, especially not if we’re constantly concerned with who we didn’t draft instead of who we did.

Florida drafted Aaron Ekblad first overall and Edmonton drafted Leon Draisaitl third overall. Neither pick should be seen as bad.

I know what you’re thinking. Does 2014 have one of those big miss picks? Nope, not in the same way the previous three years have anyway.

The 2014 NHL Draft doesn’t see a single pick produce less than five points. Instead 2014 sees two picks produce fewer than 25 points.

The Islanders miss at fifth overall as Matt Dal Colle puts up 21 points in the NHL. Julius Honka, selected 14th overall by Dallas, records 13 points at the NHL level. Detroit would go on to select Dylan Larkin at 15.

It’s not just the Flyers and that’s the point. You can rearview mirror every team in the league.

2015 NHL Draft

We see seven of the top 15 point-producers are from the top 15 picks. This marks the only draft in the eight years we’re looking at where a pick between 11 and 15 fails to make the top 15 point-producers.

The first overall pick is the lead point producer for the draft class. The top five producers being picks 1, 4, 10, 35 and 2. The next five point producers are mid and late first round picks: 17, 16, 24, 9 and 23.

The 2015 NHL Draft is infamous for Boston having picks 13, 14, 15 and only hitting on one.

Jakub Zboril, pick number 13, has just 15 points in the NHL. Zachary Senyshyn, pick number 15, has just three points.

If you’re paying attention to the theme, the trends continue.

The Islanders would select Matt Barzal with the 16th pick while Winnipeg takes Kyle Connor at 17, and Ottawa would take Thomas Chabot at 18. All three are among the top 15 point-producers for the 2015 NHL Draft class.

2016 NHL Draft

The 2016 NHL Draft is a draft year most noted for Auston Matthews. The first overall pick does what we expect of a first overall pick and leads his draft class in points.

I think there’s a more interesting story in the 2016 NHL Draft class however.

Everyone knows Jesse Puljujarvi, selected fourth overall by the Edmonton Oilers. Puljujarvi has 112 points in his NHL career. Keep in mind he played on the same team as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The word bust has been tossed around but I am not convinced yet.

Even more so there’s another guy seemingly NO ONE talks about in the from the top five of 2016. This play  deserves as much bust talk as anyone.

Of course I am talking about Olli Juolevi.

Juolevi was drafted fifth overall by Vancouver. You might remember Juolevi had quite the pedigree, especially on the world stage. He also has three points in the NHL and was signed to a one year two-way deal by Anaheim ahead of the  2022-23 NHL season for just $750,000.

Not where you expect to find a 24 year-old former top five pick.

The 2016 NHL Draft sees three of the top five picks also as top 15 point-producers.

Seven of the top 15 picks also as top 15 point-producers.

An interesting year that sees pick 39 in the top five point-producers and picks 162 and 66 in the top 10 point-producers.

2017 NHL Draft

Oh 2017 how you did us Flyers fans dirty.

Sinatra was certainly right questioning the virtue of “Lady Luck”. Four of the top five picks are also top 10 point-producers for the 2017 NHL Draft class.

We can’t look at 2017 and not talk about Nolan Patrick and the second overall pick.

Philadelphia jumps from 13 to two and in the weeks and months leading up to the draft it was a Nico Hischier/Nolan Patrick race for first overall.

The Flyers made the pick at two.

I don’t buy Bobby Clarke’s claim that he wanted Makar nor the subsequent clarification by some of the scouting staff that they wanted Heiskanen. I think it’s all too convenient. Extra dirt on an unpopular guy’s grave.

That said, let’s be honest Flyers fans. If the Flyers had drafted Hischier some of you would still be upset they didn’t draft Pettersson. For some Flyers fans, and I’m guessing this is true in every fanbase, if the team doesn’t get the absolute best player available at the spot, they very clearly failed and are terrible.

The 2017 NHL Draft is like every other year represented well by top 15 picks, but also those later picks. While six of the top 10 point-producers are also top 15 picks, picks 20, 39, 121, and 21 also make it into the top 10 point-producers.

2018 NHL Draft

The 2018 NHL Draft is at this moment the closest to an ideal NHL Draft of the eight we have looked at.

All five of the top five draft picks are also top 15 point-producers.

Joel Farabee drafted 14th overall is currently sixth in scoring for the 2018 NHL Draft class. Only four of the top 15 point-producers for the 2018 NHL Draft class come from outside the top 15. But oh how far out are they.

Picks 141, 22, 52 and, 120 round out the top 15 point-producers for 2018 but these will surely change as they get a few years deeper into the NHL and inevitably look back to judge with future-smarts.

The stark reality of NHL Draft picks is this.

There’s no real predicting, outside a small handful of uber talents, who will be successful.

Even in that small group of uber talents, getting it exactly right on just how good they’ll be is as much luck as anything else.

Anthony Chatburn is a Contributor for HW Hockey
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