Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.
Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars
Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6.5
The Edmonton Oilers (13-4-0) head down south to start a three game road trip against the Dallas Stars (7-7-2) tonight. The Oilers have won three of their last four games and three of those four games saw 7 or more goals. Edmonton’s offense has been generating an excellent amount of shot volume (558, 32.82/game) and have been cashing in often as well, with a top ten shooting percentage (8.2% 7th). While Edmonton has been cashing in on their opportunities and generating a high number of shots the scoring chance numbers are just average, ranking 16th in SCF (360, 21.17/game) and 18th in HDF (106, 6.23/game).
On the season the Oilers are giving up almost exactly as many PPOA (54, 3.17/game) as they are drawing PPO (53, 3.11/game) for themselves.
Defensively the Oilers give up even more shots against (582, 34.23/game) than they put up themselves. Edmonton also gives their opponents plenty of scoring chances in addition to the high shot volume, ranking 12th in SCA (389, 22.88/game) and 18th in HDA (116, 6.82/game).
Winners of three out of their last four, the Stars haven’t had a game feature less than 6 goals since last month. Their dismal shooting percentage (5.5% 32nd) makes their average offense look even worse. While their shot volume numbers are respectable (487, 30.43/game) their scoring chance numbers are mediocre checking in at 23rd in SCF (339, 21.18/game) and 25th in HDF (97, 6.06/game). Dallas is also ending up on their penalty kill, PPOA (55, 3.43/game) more often than the power play, PPO (45, 2.81/game) as well.
On the defensive side the Stars do a decent job limiting scoring chances ranking 30th in SCA (308, 19.25/game) and 32nd in HDA (78, 4.87/game). Despite keeping scoring chances to a minimum Dallas still gives up plenty of shots against (495, 30.93/game). This matchup isn’t perfect from a fantasy perspective but on a three game slate this is probably the best game to find quality options from.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames
Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5
The Calgary Flames (11-3-5) just finished up a seven game road trip and return home to host the Chicago Blackhawks (6-10-2). Calgary has won three in a row and four of their last five, while each of their last three games featured 4 or more goals. The Flames below average shooting percentage (7.3% 19th) hasn’t allowed their offensive to fully take advantage of their excellent shot volume (651, 34.26/game).
Calgary has also been getting themselves in great positions to score as shown by the 8th place ranking in SCF (419, 22.05/game) and 13th in HDF (113, 5.94/game). Flames games also see a fair amount of PPO (57, 3/game) and PPOA (64, 3.36/game).
While the Flames do give up plenty of opportunities with the man advantage to their opponents, at even strength they limit scoring chances, 23rd in SCA (351, 18.47/game) and 23rd in HDA (102, 5.36/game). They also do an above average job suppressing shot volume too, keeping their opponents shots under thirty a game (566, 29.78/game).
The Blackhawks are finishing up a four game road trip tonight and they’ve won five of their last six. Two of the first three games on this road trip have seen 6 or more goals. The only positive for the Blackhawks offensively is that they seem to generate plenty of PPO (62, 3.44/game), besides that every other offensive number shows a team under performing, 31st in SCF (312, 17.33/game), 31st in HDF (88, 4.88/game), 31st in shooting percentage (5.9%) and they average less than thirty shots for a game (512, 28.44/game).
The bright side of this game for fantasy purposes is that Chicago’s defense is almost as bad as their offense. They rank 9th in SCA (403, 22.38/game), 22nd in HDA (107, 5.94/game) and they’re give up plenty of shots against (583, 32.38/game). They’re also giving up a fair amount of PPOA (57, 3.16/game) With so few games on the slate we’ll be forced to have exposure to practically every game, in this game the exposure should be on the Flames side.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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