NHL DFS Environmental Study for March 15, 2022

Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.

Arizona Coyotes vs Montreal Canadiens 

• Totals: Highest 6 DK 6 FD 6 

Entering tonight’s matchup with the Montreal Canadiens (16-35-8) the Arizona Coyotes (19-36-4) have won five of their last six games. Arizona’s games have featured 8 or more goals in four of their last five. 

The Coyotes make the Environmental Study today because of two reasons, first they’re running hot right now, scoring 5+ goals in four of their last five including two games scoring 8+ goals, second their defense is abysmal, which is fortunate because their offense is just as bad. Ranking 32nd in SCF (1088, 18.44/game) 29th in HDF (342, 5.79/game) with minimal PPO (149, 2.52/game) and a lackluster shot volume (1531, 25.94/game). Only their incredible shooting percentage (9% 4th) supports the goal totals they’ve put up recently. 

Arizona’s defense is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorcycle, coming in at 7th in SCA (1346, 22.81/game) and 2nd in HDA (443, 7.5/game) while allowing a heavenly amount of shots against (2071, 35.1/game). They are contending with a healthy amount of PPOA (183, 3.1/game) and their bottom third ranked save percentage (.916 26th) hardly stands up against they offensive of onslaught their opponents deliver. 

The Canadiens kick off a six game homestand tonight after a 4-3 overtime win in Philadelphia. Montreal has seen 7+ goals in each of their previous six contests. 

The Canadiens find themselves just below middle of the pack offensively, ranking 14th in SCF (1183, 20.05/game) and 17th (377, 6.38/game) with just an adequate shot volume (1750, 29.66/game). While they’re finding ways to draw penalties, PPO (185, 3.13/game), their basement level shooting efficiency (6.9% 29th) shows they’re not taking advantage of the chances they’re getting. 

Montreal’s defense is about as soft as the job knock off Viagra pills do, they rank 5th in SCA (1376, 23.32/game) and 1st in HDA (377, 6.38/game). Their save percentage (.916 26th) mirrors that of their opponents, they are frequently down a man, PPOA (198, 3.35/game) and have to contend with a barrage of shots against (2003, 33.94/game). 

This one is a bit of a wild card, when two bad teams get together just about anything can happen. This game could just as easily end 2-1 as it could 7-6, however with these atrocious defensive numbers and both teams scoring at break neck paces right now the latter looks more likely. 

Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets 

• Totals: Highest 6 DK 6 FD 6 

The Winnipeg Jets (27-23-10) just wrapped up a successful three game road trip where they went 3-0-0 and now return home to host the Vegas Golden Knights (32-25-4). The Jets games have see game totals of 7+ goals in seven of their last nine. 

With top ten rankings in both SCF 9th (1334, 22.23/game) and HDF 7th (415, 6.91/game) the Jets have proven to be one of the most consistent teams at generating offensive pressure. Their disappointing shooting percentage (7% 27th) is holding back an offensive that has a mouth watering shot volume (1982, 33.03/game) and a decent amount of PPO (190, 3.16/game).  

Their defense is as frail as their offense is strong, ranking 10th in SCA (1324, 22.06/game) and 6th in HDA (421, 7.01/game) with just a middle of the road save percentage (.924 14th). They allow just about as many shots against (1929, 32.15/game) as they get themselves but do limit their amount of PPOA (177, 2.95/game) somewhat. 

Vegas wraps up a five game road tonight and they can’t wait for it to end having gone 0-4-0 so far. Four of the Knights last seven games have featured 7 or more goals. 

Even contending with various injuries to their top six forward group all year the Knights still manage to create offensive opportunities with the best in the league, ranking 5th in SCF (1450, 23.77/game) and 1st in HDF (481, 7.88/game) with a slightly above average shooting percentage (7.7% 14th) too. A lack of PPO (159, 2.6/game) isn’t terribly detrimental when they have such a robust shot volume (2073, 33.98/game).  

Vegas allows the opposition to create as much offensively as they do themselves, checking in at 8th in SCA (1344, 22.03/game) and 3rd in HDA (441, 7.22/game) and a bottom of the barrel save percentage (.918 23rd) rarely bails them out. They do keep themselves out of the penalty box, PPOA (167, 2.73/game) and face just a pedestrian amount of shots against (1817, 29.78/game). 

These teams are nearly carbon copies of each other when it comes to the scoring chances they generate and the scoring chances they allow. Unless either goalie comes up with a stand out performance expect this game to come in as one of the highest scoring on the slate. 

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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