Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.
Montreal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets
– Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6
The Montreal Canadiens (13-33-7) have quietly put together a five game winning streak as they head west to take on the Winnipeg Jets (23-21-9). Canadiens games have seen 5+ goals in six of their last nine.
An abysmal shooting percentage (6.6% 29th) is handicapping an offense that has been struggling to generate chances lately. Montreal ranks 22nd in SCF (1069, 20.16/game) and 17th in HDF (334, 6.3/game). The Canadiens do get a fair amount of shots (1558, 29.39/game) on net but could use a few more PPO (155, 2.92/game).
Their offense might be underwhelming right now but the Montreal defense provides the types of numbers we look to exploit. They rank 1st in both SCA (1256, 23.69/game) and HDA (400, 7.54/game) and are allowing a tantalizing amount of shots against (1812, 34.18/game). The Habs also give their opponents plenty of chances on the man advantage, PPOA (176, 3.32/game) and their bottom of the league save percentage (.916 27th) offers little resistance.
Winnipeg just ended a four game losing streak with a 5-3 victory over the Coyotes. Jets games have featured 6+ goals in five of their last seven.
Winnipeg’s offense generates pressure with the best in the league, ranking 9th in SCF (1165, 21.98/game) and 8th in HDF (356, 6.71/game) but their disappointing shooting efficiency (7% 25th) prevents them from capitalizing on these chances. They do find themselves with a decent amount of PPO (164, 3.09/game) and a very healthy shot volume (1735, 32.73/game).
Defensively the Jets allow almost as many scoring opportunities to their opponents that they generate for themselves, ranking 13th in SCA (1177, 22.2/game) and 5th in HDA (381, 7.18/game). Their shots against (1711, 32.28/game) is near identical to their own shot volume, but they do limit the amount of PPOA (154. 2.9/game) they contend with. Their save percentage (.926 14th) is just middle of the pack.
While Montreal’s offense isn’t scaring anyone right now they get a Jets’ defense that doesn’t slow down many teams either. On the other side the Habs couldn’t stop a high school team these days, with the low level of play from both defenses this game is a dark horse to be one of the highest scoring on the slate.
San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights
- Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6
The Vegas Golden Knights (29-20-4) have dropped their last two contests as they prepare to welcome the San Jose Sharks (24-23-6) into town. Three of the Knights last four games have seen 5 or more goals.
All season long the Knights have dealt with injuries to multiple top forwards but still manage to be among the league’s elite at generating chances, ranking 5th in SCF (1275, 24.05/game) and 1st in HDF (438, 8.26/game). They do lack PPO (135, 2.54/game) but their shooting percentage (8% 11th) sits just outside the top ten and they have a mouth watering shot volume (1781, 33.6/game).
Just as exciting as their offense Vegas’ defense doesn’t disappoint, ranking 7th in SCA (1200, 22.64/game) and 3rd in HDA (390, 7.35/game). They don’t allow an excessive amount of shots against (1584, 29.88/game) or PPOA (146, 2.75/game) but their well below average save percentage (.919 23rd) doesn’t do them any favors.
The Sharks come into this matchup having lost back to back games by identical 3-1 scores. Despite low scoring affairs in their most recent contests, San Jose has seen 7+ goals in three of their last six contests.
Creating scoring opportunities at a mediocre clip, the Sharks rank 21st in SCF (1075, 20.28/game) and 11th in HDF (181, 22.28/game). Their bottom third shooting percentage (7% 25th) does nothing help elevate their offense. With just an average amount of shots (1568, 29.58/game) and few PPO (142, 2.67/game) they tend to prey on weaker defenses and struggle with more competent ones.
San Jose’s defense allows plenty of opportunities for their opponents to put points on the board, ranking 10th in SCA (1181, 22.28/game) and 14th in HDA (348, 6.56/game). While they don’t face too many PPOA (137, 2.58/game) they do allow a fair amount of shots against (1690, 31.88/game) and their underwhelming save percentage (.920 21st) rarely bails them out.
Both of these teams bring highly skilled and effective offenses into the contest and to make things even more appealing neither defense offers much of a fight to stop them. The scoring should be fast and furious in this one.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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