Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.
Florida Panthers @ St. Louis Blues
- Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6.5
Having just gone 3-1-0 on a four game home stand the Florida Panthers (17-4-3) start a three game road trip tonight against the St. Louis Blues (12-8-4). Four of Florida’s last five games have seen 7 or more goals, including a 4-3 win against the Blues in their last game.
The Panthers offense is among the league’s elite, ranking 2nd in SCF (644, 26.83/game) and 3rd in HDF (202, 8.41/game) while creating a fair amount of PPO (72, 3/game) for themselves. Their top ten shooting percentage (8.1% 8th) has them utilizing their incredible shot volume (881, 36.70/game) to its fullest.
Florida’s opponents find ways to stay competitive, forcing the Panthers to face a good amount of shots against (746, 31.08/game) and PPOA (72, 3/game). Florida also gives up plenty of quality scoring opportunities at even strength, ranking 25th in SCF (470, 19.58/game) but 5th in HDA (175, 7.29/game).
The Blues kick off a four game home stand tonight looking to finish off their back to back against the Panthers with a win. St. Louis hasn’t seen a game with less than 5 goals since October.
The Blues offense is very respectable in their own right, above average shooting efficiency (7.7% 12th) and impressive shot volume (796, 33.16/game) are a good start. But the Blues also have impressive numbers in both offensive scoring chance categories, 7th in SCF (573, 23.87/game) and 17th in HDF (147, 6.12/game). Their lack of PPO is of little concern (66, 2.75/game).
Defensively St. Louis ranks top ten with their scoring chance numbers, 5th in SCA (576, 24/game) and 9th in HDA (168, 7/game). They don’t have to contend with very many PPOA (67, 2.79/game) but face a healthy amount of shots against (762, 31.75/game).
These teams just showed a few nights ago what kind of offensive showcase they can put on display, expect tonight to follow a similar path.
Tampa Bay Lighting @ Montreal Canadiens
- Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5
While the Montreal Canadiens (6-17-3) aren’t winning many games right now, they are playing in plenty of entertaining ones and that should continue tonight when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning (15-5-4). Through twenty-six games this season Montreal has only had three of them feature less than 4 goals and fourteen of them have had 6+ goals.
The Habs abysmal shooting percentage (6.2% 27th) is preventing them from capitalizing on the rest of their quality numbers, like their solid amount of PPO (81, 3.11/game) and decent shot volume (766, 29.46/game). However where their offense really stands out is there five on five scoring chances, ranking 8th in SCF (559, 21.5/game) and 9th in HDF (163, 6.26/game).
Montreal’s defense is even more enticing than their offense, ranking 1st in SCA (597, 22.96/game) and 2nd in HDA (191, 7.34/game). They give their opponents a good amount of chances with the man advantage too, PPOA (80, 3.07/game) and have to cope with a high amount of shots against (876, 33.69/game).
The Lightning are riding a three game winning streak into tonight’s contest and look to stay undefeated on their current five game road trip. Each of Tampa Bay’s last five games saw 5+ goals.
The Lightning rely heavily on their top notch shooting efficiency (8.5% 5th) to score goals as most of their offensive numbers are just average, shot volume (713, 29.7/game) and PPO (70, 2.91/game) for starters. Their scoring chance numbers are very middling as well, ranking 15th in both SCF (514, 21.41/game) and HDF (155, 6.45/game).
Tampa Bay does deal with a few issues defensively, the amount of PPOA (73, 3.04/game) is a little enticing and they face a good amount of shots against (727, 30.29/game). At even strength though they limit their opponents opportunities, ranking 21st in SCA (504, 21/game) and 28th in HDA (129, 5.37/game).
Montreal consistently creates offense against any opponent and that should continue here despite the Lightning’s quality defense, and Tampa Bay should get plenty of offensive chances of their own against the Habs fragile defense.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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