NHL DFS Environmental Study for December 2, 2021

Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.

New Jersey Devils @ Minnesota Wild

• Totals: Highest 6 DK 6 FD 6

In the middle of a five game home stand and winners of their last four, the Minnesota Wild (15-6-1) host the New Jersey Devils (9-7-4). The combined goal totals for Minnesota’s last seven games are 7, 6, 8, 5, 9, 9 and 9.

Being elevated by one of the best shooting percentages (9.2% 2nd) in the league, high shot volume (742, 33.72/game) and a decent amount of PPO (70, 3.18/game) the Wild have been one of the better offenses in the league. They also are in the top half of the league in SCF, 14th (471, 21.4/game) and top ten in HDF, 9th (149, 6.77/game).

Defensively Minnesota gifts their opponents plenty of chances on the man advantage forcing themselves to face quite a bit of PPOA (75, 3.40/game) while also dealing with a fair amount of shots against (669, 30.40/game). However they limit their opponents five on five chances, ranking 27th in SCA (404, 18.36/game) and 28th in HDA (111, 5.04/game).

The Devils head to Minnesota to start a small two game road trip having lost three of their last four games. Both of New Jersey’s last two games saw 7 goals and their last eight games have all had at least 5 goals.

Despite lacking a solid amount of PPO (56, 2.8/game) the Devils still check out as an above average to good offensive team, especially considering their shot volume (645, 32.25/game). Their shooting percentage (7.3% 19th) is holding them back a bit but their per game scoring chance numbers are favorable, ranking 18th in SCF (441, 22.05/game) and 18th in HDF (129, 6.45/game).

While they don’t seem to be able to put themselves on the power play very often the amount of PPOA (68, 3.4/game) show that New Jersey gives their opponents time with the extra attacker quite a bit. The Devils rank 23rd in SCA (417, 20.85/game) and 22nd in HDA (128, 6.4/game) while facing a fairly high amount of shots against (627, 31.35/game).

While this matchup favors the Wild offensively the Devils offense has been picking up their game lately with 5 goals in two of their last five games and are averaging 34 shots a game over their last four. Expect both teams to put up plenty of points tonight.

Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings

• Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5

Having gone 2-1-0 over their most recent home stand, the Calgary Flames (13-4-5) head to California to take on the Los Angeles Kings (9-8-4). The Flames games have featured 6+ goals in three of their last five games.

Calgary boasts excellent shot volume (758, 34.45/game) and top fifteen rankings in scoring chance categories, ranking 7th in SCF (508, 23.09/game) and 13th in HDF (141, 6.40/game). Their mediocre shooting percentage (7%, 21st) and low amount of PPO (61, 2.77/game) hasn’t slowed down this offense much, as they’ve put up 4+ goals in four of their last six games.

The amount of PPOA (69, 3.13/game) isn’t terrible but it’s the best way to find success against this Flames defense. They rank 29th in SCA (388, 17.63/game) and 29th in HDA (109, 4.95/game) while facing just a middling amount of shots against (637, 28.95/game).

This is the seventh and final game of the current home stand for the Kings, they’ve only won one of the first six games. Four of LA’s last five games saw 6 or more goals.

Across the board the Kings are generating offense in all aspects of the game right now, ranking 8th in SCF (507, 24.14/game) and 10th in HDF (145, 6.9/game) in addition to drawing a good amount of PPO (71, 3.38/game). LA’s shot volume is excellent (732, 34.85/game) if they can improve their shooting efficiency (6.8% 22nd) this offense can reach new heights.

The Kings are just as fantasy friendly on defense as they are offensively, facing an above average amount of shots against (642, 30.57/game) and slotting in the top ten of scoring chances against categories, ranking 8th in SCA (498, 23.71/game) and 10th in HDA (149, 7.09/game). Only a lack of PPOA (51, 2.42/game) helps out this sieve like defense.

A couple of very good offenses that create a ton of shot volume with a questionable defense mixed in makes this game look like it could be a barn burner.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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