NHL DFS Environmental Study for April 1, 2022

Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.

New York Islanders vs New York Rangers

• Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5

The New York Islanders (30-27-9) are coming off two straight victories over the Blue Jackets, 4-3 and 5-2, as they head to Madison Square Garden for a match up with the cross town rival New York Rangers (44-19-5). Islanders’ games have featured 7 or more goals in four of their last five .

The Islanders offense isn’t blowing anyone away right now with below average rankings in both SCF 19^th (1421, 21.53/game) and HDF 20^th (428, 6.48/game). Their PPO (166, 2.51/game), shot volume (166, 2.51/game) and shooting percentage (7.8% 15^th) aren’t overly impressive either.

Their offense isn’t exactly exciting but the Islanders defense is offering up the type of play we look for in fantasy matchups, ranking 5^th in SCA (1568, 23.75/game) and 10^th in HDA (464, 7.03/game) while allowing a healthy amount of shots against (2136, 32.36/game). A lack of PPOA (164, 2.48/game) and an elite save percentage (.931 3^rd) are the only concerns.

Having won four straight games and cementing themselves as contenders in the Eastern Conference the Rangers look to start off April the same way they ended March. The Rangers have seen 6 or more total goals in four of their last five contests.

The Rangers are fortunate their opponents’ defense is so weak because they’ve been struggling to generate offense, ranking 27^th in SCF (1322, 19.44/game) and 23^rd in HDF (417, 6.13/game) with just a middle of the road shooting efficiency (8% 13^th). Their shot volume (1962, 28.85/game) and PPO (181, 2.66/game) don’t instill much fear in their opposition either.

Defensively the Rangers are allowing chances among the highest rates in the league, checking in at 8^th in SCA (1562, 22.97/game) and 5^th in HDA (490, 7.2/game). They’re contending with a fair amount of PPOA (194, 2.85/game) and give up a good amount of shots against (2148, 31.58/game) but a spectacular save percentage (.931 3^rd) erases a lot of their defensive blemishes.

Each of these teams allow an excessive amount of scoring chances to their opponents and rely on stellar goaltending to bail them out. There’s of course a certain element of risk relying on two of the better goalies in the league to have off nights, but the scoring chances will be there in this one.

St. Louis Blues vs Edmonton Oilers

• Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6.5 FD 6.5

The Edmonton Oilers (38-25-5) are hosting the St. Louis Blues (37-20-9) tonight as both teams are fighting for playoff positioning entering the last month of the season. Oilers games have totaled 7 or more goals in eight of their last nine.

Despite two of the best players in the world Edmonton’s offense falls somewhere between average and above average, ranking 10^th in SCF (1509, 22.19/game) and 17^th in HDF (437, 6.42/game) with a shooting percentage (7.9% 14^th) that lands in the middle of the pack. The Oilers do find themselves getting plenty of PPO (203, 2.98/game) and their shot volume (2286, 33.61/game) is excellent.

Edmonton’s defense is nothing special, coming in at 16^th in SCA (1504, 22.11/game) and 19^th in HDA (434, 6.38/game), however their abysmal save percentage (.918 25^th) does them no favors. The Oilers are giving their opponents plenty of chances with the man advantage, PPOA (212, 3.11/game) and contend with a decent amount of shots against (2165, 31.83/game).

The Blues come into this matchup after defeating the Canucks in back to back games. St. Louis has only had one game with less than 7 goals in their last six contests.

On offense St. Louis is generating opportunities at a fairly mediocre rate, they rank 16^th in SCF (1474, 22.33/game) and 25^th in HDF (396, 6/game), but their league leading shooting percentage (9% 1^st) allows them to take full advantage of their limited chances. Their solid shot volume (2016, 30.54/game) and a decent amount of PPO (191, 2.89/game) give them added chances to find offensive success.

The Blues rank inside the top ten of both SCA 4^th (1584, 24/game) and HDA 9^th (467, 7.07/game) but a fantastic save percentage (.927, 10^th) helps cancel out some of those chances. They’re dealing with the same amount of PPOA (191, 2.89/game) as they create for themselves, their shots against (2066, 31.3/game) show their opponents are getting plenty of pucks on net.

Both of these teams possess offensive talent better than what their numbers indicate and the Blues defense doesn’t seem capable of stopping anyone. The Oilers have a slightly more enticing matchup in this one but St. Louis will get their chances.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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