NHL DFS Environmental Study 12/5/21

Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.

Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers

• Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6 FD 6.5

Having dropped seven of their last eight games after winning seven straight the Los Angeles Kings (9-9-4) head north for a matchup with the Edmonton Oilers (16-6-0). Three of LA’s last four games have seen 6 or more goals.

The Kings bring a bottom third shooting percentage (6.7% 23rd) but that’s where the negatives end for their offense, their shot volume (774, 35.18) and PPO (73, 3.31/game) are both exceptional. They also rank in the top third in scoring opportunities, 8th in SCF (538, 24.45/games) and 12th in HDF (152, 6.9/game).

Unfortunately LA’s PPOA (55, 2.5/game) aren’t as prevalent as their own man advantage chances, but they are facing a healthy amount of shots against (674, 30.63/game). Just like their offense they rank in the top third in both defensive scoring opportunity categories, 8th in SCA (522, 23.72/game) and 13th in HDA (156, 7.09/game).

Winners in five of their last seven games, the Oilers begin a six game home stand tonight. Edmonton has seen 5 or more goals in each of their last six games, including four games with 7+ goals.

The Oilers pristine shooting efficiency (8.3% 6th) allows them to capitalize on their less than average scoring chances, ranking 24th in SCF (451, 20.5/game) and 22nd in HDF (135, 6.13/game). Their very good shot volume (708, 32.18/game) and decent amount of PPO (68, 3.09/game) also help elevate their offense.

Defensively Edmonton lets their opponents hang around due to the high amount of shots against (748, 34/game) they face and the amount of PPOA (69, 3.13/game) they have to contend with. They’re middle of the pack with the scoring chances they allow, ranking 15th in SCA (507, 23.04/game) and 16th in HDA (152, 6.9/game).

Edmonton’s offensive ceiling is through the roof despite the mediocre scoring chance numbers and the Kings have the skill players, depth and offensive upside to match them, expect plenty of fireworks in this one.

Calgary Flames @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5

Riding a three game winning streak the Calgary Flames (15-4-5) are halfway through a four game road trip as they take on the Vegas Golden Knights (13-10-0) tonight. Four of the Flames last five games have featured 5 or more goals.

Their great shot volume (826, 34.41/game) has allowed the Flames to overcome their below average shooting percentage (7% 21st). They could use more PPO (66, 2.75/game) but their five on five scoring chance numbers are very good, ranking 6th in SCF (559, 23.29/game) and 11th in HDF (155, 6.45/game).

While Calgary does face quite a few PPOA (74, 3.08/game) that’s about the only thing their defense allows. They rank 26th in SCA (445, 18.54/game) and 27th in HDA (126, 5.25/game) while allowing just an average amount of shots against (713, 29.7/game).

The Knights have been alternating wins and losses over the last six games and four of their last five games have seen 7 or more goals.

Besides their dismal amount of PPO (53, 2.3/game) their offense is excellent in every other facet, ranking 9th in SCF (531, 23.08/game) and 3rd in HDF (194, 8.43/game). Their massive shot volume (759, 33/game) and phenomenal shooting percentage (8.5% 4th) raise the Knights offensive ceiling.

While their offensive numbers are great for fantasy purposes, their defensive numbers are even better, ranking in the top five of both defensive scoring chance categories, 4th in SCA (563, 24.47/game) and 2nd in HDA (188, 8.17/game). They also see more PPOA (66, 2.86/game) and shots against (762, 33.13/game) than they get themselves on offense.

Vegas’ offense has enough skill and firepower to overcome the Flames solid defense and Calgary’s offense will be able to keep pace with everything the Knights do, this one might be the highest scoring game on the slate.

Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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