Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.
Calgary Flames vs Florida Panthers
Totals: Highest 6 DK 6 FD 6
Due to the postponement of several games the Calgary Flames (17-7-6) have only played two games in the last three weeks as they head south to take on the Florida Panthers (21-7-4). Each of those games saw 5+ goals including 10 goals scored in their win against the Kraken.
The Flames offense seems to be heating up coming out of the winter break with 5 goals in each of their first two games back and they’ve been consistently getting shots on goal (1045, 34.83/game) all season. They’re middle of the road in terms of PPO (89, 2.96/game) and SCF, ranking 14th (706, 23.53/game). A lack of HDF, 23rd (190, 6.33/game) and a below average shooting percentage (7% 23rd) is limiting their offensive ceiling.
Calgary has proven to be one of the better teams defensively, limiting the amount of shots against (874, 29.13/game) and how many PPOA (89, 2.96/game) they face. At five on five they’re one of the best in the league at minimizing their opposition’s chances, ranking 30th in SCA (564, 18.8/game) and 30th in HDA (157, 5.23/game), while their league leading save percentage (.942 1st) erases most of the chances that do come up.
The Panthers have come out of the break making a strong statement that they’re one of the best teams in the league, with wins against the Rangers 4-3, the Lightning 9-3 and the Canadiens 5-2. They’re playing in high scoring games and delivering plenty of scoring of their own.
Florida possesses one of the truly elite offenses this season, ranking 1st in SCF (842, 26.31/game) and 2nd in HDF (268, 8.37/game) in addition to putting themselves on the man advantage frequently, PPO (105, 3.28/game). Their mouth-watering shot volume (1169, 36.53/game) and pristine shooting efficiency (8.6% 6th) put the exclamation point on the statement their offense is making to the rest of the league.
As consistent as their offense has been the Panthers’ defense has been just the opposite, showing signs of great potential at times and failing to meet even average expectations at others. They rank 24th in SCA (626 19.56/game) but 5th in HDA (236, 7.37/game) and playing down a man almost as often as they get the man advantage, PPOA (99, 3.09/game). While their save percentage (.922 18th) checks in below average and they do face a healthy amount of shots against (1000, 31.25/game).
Florida has more than enough skill and firepower to overcome Calgary’s above average defense, as long as the Flames can capitalize on the many chances the Panthers should give them this game will finish among the highest on tonight’s slate.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Anaheim Ducks
Totals: Highest 5.5 DK 5.5 FD 5.5
The Philadelphia Flyers (13-13-6) continue to be the most consistent version of mediocre in all of sports as they finish up their West Coast road trip against the Anaheim Ducks (17-11-7) tonight. While Philadelphia let their seven game point streak come to an end at the hands of the Kings they continue to participate in high scoring affairs, with seven of their last eleven games featuring 7+ goals and only one game with less than 5 goals in that span.
The Flyers have been delivering quality shot volume (998, 31.18/game) despite just being just middle of the pack at generating offensive chances, 22nd in SCF (635, 19.84/game) and 14th in HDF (211, 6.59/game). Their shooting efficiency (6.8% 25th) and PPO (93, 2.9/game) aren’t overly impressive either, they’re going to have to rely on their opponents’ lack of defense for an offensive ceiling game.
On the defensive side though the Flyers have been providing fertile fantasy ground all season ranking top ten in both SCA, 7th (753, 23.53/game) and HDA, 3rd (251, 7.84/game). They also face a great deal of shots against (1119, 34.96/game) plus contend with a fair amount of PPOA (102, 3.18/game) and their average save percentage (.925 17th) offers little cover for what is a disastrous team defense.
The Ducks come out of the winter break dropping three straight and failing to score more than 2 goals in all three contests.
Despite the recent lull Anaheim has displayed an excellent offense all season, ranking 10th in SCF (722, 20.62/game) and 4th in HDF (236, 6.74/game). Their shot volume (1085, 31/game) has been more than adequate but they could stand to generate some more PPO (93, 2.65/game) for themselves and their bottom third shooting percentage (7% 23rd) is certainly stopping this very good offense from becoming great.
The Ducks always have the potential to be the remedy any team needs to get their offense right. Anaheim ranks top ten in both defensive scoring chance categories, 8th in SCA (752, 21.48/game) and 9th in HDA (229, 6.54/game) and offers up just an ordinary level save percentage (.927 15th) as resistance. While they do limit the number of PPOA (96, 2.74/game) they have to cope with, the Ducks still face plenty of shots against (1134, 32.4/game).
For fantasy purposes the Ducks need to control this game and force the Flyers to elevate their level of play. If Philadelphia can take advantage of Anaheim’s soft defense these teams can put on an offensive show.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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