Here in the environmental study we’re going to identify the games with the best fantasy scoring environments for everyday of the NHL season. To do this we’re going to look at teams’ scoring chances for (SCF), scoring chances against (SCA), high danger chances for (HDF), high danger chances against (HDA), power play opportunities (PPO) and power play opportunities against (PPOA). The reason for applying those stats to this particular exercise is because they are the best indicator of a team’s scoring opportunities and we want to identify games with teams that possess the best combination of quality and quantity of scoring opportunities.
Los Angeles Kings vs Boston Bruins
- Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 5.5 FD 6
Having finished up a six game road trip in which they went 5-1-0, the Boston Bruins (34-18-4) return home to host the Los Angeles Kings (31-19-7). The Bruins have seen 7 or more goals in each of their last four games.
A shooting percentage (6.7% 30th) that sits among the league’s worst has been knee-capping a Boston offense that is in the upper echelon of the league as far generating opportunities, ranking 15th in SCF (1207, 21.55/game) and 9th in HDF (377, 6.73/game). Their voluptuous shot volume (1968, 35.14/game) offsets a lower than ideal amount of PPO (159, 2.83/game).
The Bruins middle of the road save percentage (.923 16th) and a few extra trips to the penalty box, PPOA (179, 3.19/game) seem to be the only perceived vulnerabilities of this defense. They rank 31st in SCA (1036, 18.5/game) and 28th in HDA (322, 5.57/game) and allow a reasonable amount of shots against (1631, 29.12/game).
LA wraps up a four game road trip against the Bruins, they’ve gone 2-1 so far and two of their three games saw 7+ goals.
The Kings are generating offensive chances with the league’s best, ranking 3rd in SCF (1379, 24.19/game) and 4th in HDF (420, 7.36/game), just an abysmal shooting percentage (6.7% 30th) is holding them back. With a titillating shot volume (2021, 35.45/game) and a healthy amount of PPO (175, 3.07/game) that shooting efficiency should correct over time.
While not as exciting as their offensive numbers LA’s defense does offer plenty fantasy scoring upside, coming in at 13th in SCA (1241, 21.77/game) and 17th in HDA (368, 3.45/game). They manage to keep themselves off of the penalty kill, PPOA (156, 2.73/game), allow a fair amount of shots against (1624, 28.49/game) and their save percentage (.925 13th) is just above league average.
The Bruins play a sound defensive game but LA has the offensive system and skill to pressure them and create their own chances. While Boston’s offense might seem ordinary at first look there’s no denying the upside their skill players possess.
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames
- Totals: Highest 6.5 DK 6.5 FD 6.5
The Edmonton Oilers (30-22-4) have dropped two in a row as they hit the road to take on the Calgary Flames (33-14-7) in the latest edition of the Battle of Alberta. Edmonton’s games have featured 6+ goals in eight of their last ten.
The Oilers find themselves in the middle of the pack when it comes to creating scoring opportunities, ranking 14th in SCF (1215, 21.69/game) and 20th in HDF (350, 6.25/game). A heightened shot volume (1864, 33.28/game) allows them to compensate for their ordinary shooting efficiency (7.5% 17th) and pedestrian amount of PPO (164, 2.92/game).
With a save percentage (.920 19th) in the bottom half of the league and dealing with a good amount of shots against (1781, 31.8/game) the Edmonton defense is one to exploit. They rank 11th in SCA (1257, 22.44/game) and 18th in HDA (361, 6.44/game) and put their opponents up a man at a respectable rate, PPOA (173, 3.08/game).
The Flames have lost just twice in their last fifteen games and their last five games have all seen 6+ goals.
Calgary’s offense is generating pressure at a dominant rate, ranking 5th in SCF (1353, 25.05/game) and 6th in HDF (386, 7.14/game). Their ordinary shooting percentage (7.7% 15th) and slightly underwhelming amount of PPO (156, 2.88/game) does no justice to their mouth watering shot volume (1930, 35.74/game).
As exciting as their offense is the Flames defense is absolutely smothering, coming in at 30th in SCA (1061, 19.64/game) and 31st (302, 5.59/game). They don’t find themselves down a man too often, PPOA (160, 2.96/game), their amount of shots against (1584, 29.33/game) isn’t unreasonable and when shots do get on net their goalies are putting up a stellar save percentage (.932 3rd).
Like usual Edmonton is going to have to rely on their two other worldly athletes to carry their offense and overcome the Flames exceptional defense. But if they’re able to do just that, Calgary has the horses to match them in a track meet.
Dave Leonard is our Lead Fantasy Writer at HW Hockey
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