Flyers Offseason Preference vs. Prediction Part One: Defensemen

Okay, first off, Im putting this right AT THE TOP of the page to avoid any confusion.

There are two parts to every objective I would like the Flyers to complete this offseason and the objectives in this article are related to, yup, you guessed it…DEFENSEMEN! I will include an opinion on my preference and my prediction under each objective. It’s fun…right!?

Let’s get this show on the road.

I’m going to address any possible rumor you may have heard already right here. Whether that be from a tweet, blurb, fax, rock with crayon on it or a potato that someone hurled through your window. (Just me? I get far too much hate on here…anyways…)

Lets start with NUMBER ONE!

1. Flyers sign or trade for a Top Pairing Defenseman (Preferably Right Handed)

• Seth Jones

I find the thought of a Seth Jones addition absolutely TITILLATING and would be my top target to fill this role. With that being said, with a trade, it should definitely come with an extension. He’s 26 years old and is scheduled to be a UFA next offseason (2022).

He’s an elite right handed shot that can log big minutes. Don’t get lost in the weeds in terms of analytics, %, circumference, metrics, or what kind of tape he uses on his stick. The truth of the matter is that Seth Jones is elite and can flat out play.

• Dougie Hamilton

Hamilton would be a close second in terms of my preference. Would I take either one of Dougie Hamilton or Seth Jones? HELL YEAH. GIMME DAT. Hamilton has shown to be a productive player no matter where he plays since his rookie year with Boston.

He brings a strong two-way style of play and can be utilized in any situation. Assuming Hamilton’s AAV after this off-season will be north of $9-10m, the Flyers will need to be creative with the CAP, but I would happily take Dougie Hamilton on my team.

• Ryan Ellis, Matthias Ekholm, Morgan Reilly, and John Klingberg

These are a few names that you heard might, (*MIGHT*), I’ll say it again for the people in the back…MIGHT be available.

I would take these reports with a grain of salt, but if the reports do happen to carry merit then John Klingberg and Ryan Ellis would be THE GUY(s) for me this offseason. Would I argue with any of these aforementioned names? HELLLL NO. I’d be chipper as a clam high-stepping and shuffling down Broad Street for any of these guys.

But as I said before, there is no telling if any of these guys are actually available.

With that being said, it’s easier said than done acquiring elite talent, but it is something that desperately needs to happen for the Flyers to move the needle.

Preference Order

1. Seth Jones
2. John Klingberg
3. Dougie Hamilton
4. Ryan Ellis
5. Morgan Reilly
6. Matthias Ekholm

Prediction

Other teams will be paying more attention to Dougie Hamilton and will most likely be offering him more money to play elsewhere. I’ve also never been convinced that Hamilton is the type of guy that cares about playing for a contender. His $9-10m price will most likely be too much for the Flyers.

Players like Klingberg, Ellis, Ekholm and Reilly would be great…if they were actually available. You hear and read a few beat articles here and there but seldom does something ever materialize. I do not think any of these names will actually move unless their respective teams are blown away with picks and prospects. I would assume Ekholm has the best chance of being moved.

Now for Seth Jones. This one is bound to break a few hearts and probably a few broken hands from punching air (ha, a joke!). There’s no doubt in my mind the Flyers will be in it until the end for Jones, but competition will be aggressive.

I dont think the Flyers make a move for him without a guaranteed extension, which is justified and I think that may be one of the few roadblocks in the way. Teams like Chicago, LA, Colorado (via Adam Portzline) amongst others also have assets to offer.

I do not think the Flyers will get Jones but if they were to acquire him, here would be my guess at an offer.

Philippe Myers, Travis Konecny, 2021 1st round pick (13th overall), Yegor Zamula for Seth Jones and a 3rd round pick

If Seth Jones were to sign an extension with the Flyers, I think it would be something around the ballpark of 6-7 years/$8.5-9m AAV and some degree of an X-team No-Move Clause.

2: Flyers sign one or two top six defensemen (Preferably Right Handed)

The top pairing, elite defenseman is top priority no matter how you slice it.

However, that doesn’t mean you can not continue to pursue and fill out the rest of your defense core, especially if you expect one or both of Travis Sanheim/Phil Myers to be traded and Shayne Gostisbehere to be traded for a late pick or taken in the expansion draft.

• Rasmus Ristolainen

Oh boy, BRING ON THE HEAT BABY. GIVE. ME. THE FINN. This one will leave me in the trenches taking grenades. One of my top preferences for a second pairing defenseman is the 6’4 Finnish defenseman. An analytics nightmare? You bet. But he’s big, he’s mean, and he’s never been surrounded with talent or a steady defense partner.

Here’s a small breakdown of what he brings to the table.

Anyone who doesn’t want Rasmus Ristolainen is absolutely crazy to me. Stop looking at CORSI and actually watch the games.

Anyone who watched Flyers v Sabres for years will notice he’s powerful in front of the net, wins puck battles, covers ice in transition, and plays physical. https://t.co/DMLiE9fd7D

— Johnny (Flyers) Hockey (@FlyersJohnny) July 4, 2021

• Adam Larsson

Rumors have been swirling about the Flyers being interested in Adam Larsson, but personally, I have never been a fan. He was not great in New Jersey and we saw much of the same in Edmonton. Larsson lacks foot speed and has been trending in a negative direction in terms of production. Larsson is currently 28 years old and is a UFA this offseason so I would assume his contract could be 4-5 years at around $4m AAV. Just a little more than Montreal Canadiens’ defenseman, Joel Edmundson. Im out.

• Josh Manson

Is Manson *actually* available? Will the Ducks actually trade him? You can speculate as much, but the truth is, who knows? If you’re looking for a guy who does all of the little things properly, Manson is your guy. Is he flashy? Will he put up points? Probably not. But Manson can serve as a buffer to a pairing with risk takers like Sanheim or Myers. Manson is 29 years old and making $4.45m with 1 year left on his deal.  Not my top choice, but I wouldn’t hate the addition.

• Tyson Barrie

This is one of those “HELL NO” moments for me, coach. I have never been a fan of Tyson Barrie as he has struggled on the defensive side of the puck most of his career and his stats from last season could be attributed to getting top pair minutes with Connor McJesus (McMuffin? Bueller? Bueller? meh) on the ice. If you ask me, we already have enough risk taking defensemen and probably shouldn’t get another. Barrie is 29 years old and is an upcoming UFA. I would assume his contract to be 5-6 years at $5-5.5m AAV. Lets avoid this one, shall we.

• Alec Martinez

If I had to describe Alec Martinez in one word it would be this: Exquisite.

Alec Martinez may have some miles on him, but I see Niskanen-esque potential with him. Martinez is a steady soldier on the blueline and can play on the second or third pairing. I would love to see a guy like Martinez paired with Cam York or as mentioned before, a buffer for Myers and Sanheim. A new veteran leader in the locker room wouldn’t hurt either. Martinez is 34 years old and is an upcoming UFA. I would predict Martinez signs a 1 or 2 year deal for around $2.5-$3m AAV. He would be one of my top choices as a UFA.

• Duncan Keith

Including Keith on this list is merely for the completeness. This man is headed home to Western Canada if and when the Chicago Blackhawks decide to trade him. He is not coming to Philadelphia. However, fun fact: the Flyers almost traded for Duncan Keith when he was a prospect in 2004 in exchange for Tony Amonte and Jeremy Roenick, both 34 years old at the time. Ah, what could have been, but I digress.

• Sami Vatanen

Sami Vatanen is another guy that I have been enamored with ever since he’s joined the league. Nothing crazy here, but Vatanen is a UFA this off-season and will be going into his age 30 season. He’s not the player he once was on the Anaheim Ducks but he’s still got some game left and he will be cheap. I would imagine he’s looking for around 1 to 2 years and $2m AAV.

• Alex Goligoski

I’ll put it this way, I was more excited for the Boyd Gordon signing than I would be for Goligoski.

I will run. I will run far away. I will run so fast, you will be like “wow, I’ve never seen a man run that fast” type-fast. I will run to the Atlantic Ocean and never come back. I will camp out on a nearby beach, grow a beard, and change my name. My Twitter Account will be disabled (hold the applause). I’ll make friends. Befriend another homeless man. They’d call him Chubbs. Chubbs tries to steal my newspaper one day. I get pissed. Chubbs and I will no longer be friends. I return to twitter with a new identity. They’ll call me Gator (re-applause). Sorry, long tangent. But yeah, if we sign Goligoski, Chuck Fletcher should be banished to Siberia. I will cry.

• Jake McCabe

Another solid bottom pairing guy would be Buffalo Sabres defenseman, Jake McCabe. Again, not a flashy defenseman but similar to Manson. McCabe will handle his business on the defensive side of the puck, which is something this defense corps desperately needs. McCabe will also be able to contribute plenty of PK minutes. McCabe is 27 years old is an upcoming UFA this offseason and is coming off of an injury plagued season. I would say McCabe will get 4 years at $3.5-$4m AAV. McCabe is a favorite of mine.

• Erik Gutsafss….

Oh, cmon, you guys dont like jokes? grow up.

• Niklas Hjalmarsson, David Savard, and Ryan Murray

All of these guys are scheduled UFA’s this offseason and I would be alright with any one of them for our bottom pairing. Reports indicate that Hjalmarsson is not interested in leaving Arizona (no, no, you read that correctly). Savard won his first Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning and no one knows if he is interested in leaving. Kinda hard to get on a bird and leave the Tampa Bay sunshine, but given that Tampa Bay is in cap hell ($18mil over the cap, ever heard that before?), he’s probably not returning. Ryan Murray, former 2nd overall pick in 2012, would be another bottom pairing choice.

Im not crazy about Savard or Murray but if we can get them on a short-term and team-friendly deal while playing limited minutes, I don’t see the harm. The issue is, I see them looking for something slightly more lucrative on the open market.

Preference Order

1. Alec Martinez
2. Rasmus Ristolainen
3. Jake McCabe

4. Josh Manson
5. Niklas Hjalmarsson
6. Adam Larsson

7.Sami Vatanen
8. David Savard
9. Tyson Barrie

10. Ryan Murray

Prediction

The Flyers should somehow be able to will their way to a deal with the Buffalo Sabres for Rasmus Ristolainen and a forward (Sam Reinhart/Jack Eichel) (Forwards will be a part of a later article edition).

My idea of a package for this would probably be: Morgan Frost, a 2023 1st round pick, Zayde Wisdom and a 2nd round pick for Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart.

It would probably likely take a little more from the Flyers end, but thats a start.

I think the Flyers also end up signing UFA Adam Larsson, formerly of the Edmonton Oilers. The Flyers have been rumored for Larsson and when there’s smoke, there’s fire. I would imagine a signing for Larsson would be 5 years at $4-4.5m AAV.

As for the UFA’s, I think the Flyers would be contenders for the 34 year old Alec Martinez. I would also hope they take a run at Jake McCabe, as well, but again, not always reality. I don’t think the Flyers get either. As for Hjalmarsson, I think he stays in Arizona. Savard and Barrie will sign elsewhere and Josh Manson will get traded but not to the Flyers.

MY OVERALL PREFERENCE

1st Pair: Ivan Provorov – Seth Jones
2nd Pair: Travis Sanheim – Alec Martinez
3rd Pair: Cam York – Rasmus Ristolainen
Samuel Morin
Robert Hagg

Samuel Morin is re-signed to a 1-year/$1.5m extension.
Shayne Gostisbehere is taken by the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft or traded for a 5th round or 6th round pick elsewhere.
Justin Braun is also moved for a 6th round or 7th round pick or placed on waivers.

MY OVERALL PREDICTION:

1st Pair: Ivan Provorov – Rasmus Ristolainen
2nd Pair: Travis Sanheim – Adam Larsson
3rd Pair: Justin Braun – Phil Myers
Robert Hagg
Cam York

Samuel Morin is NOT re-signed.
Shayne Gostisbehere is taken by the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft or traded for a 5th round or 6th round pick elsewhere.

Let me know what you think!

Find me on Twitter @FlyersJohnny