My official first bets of the year, no pressure…

It’s always tough when you don’t have many games to choose from, but luckily there’s still a couple decent choices for today’s tilt. If you live under a rock, the 2022-2023 NHL season opens on October 7^th at 2:00 p.m. EST with the Nashville Predators facing off against the San Jose Sharks in the NHL Global Series. The two teams play each other again on Saturday at 2:00 p.m.

Here’s a graphic I put together for this weekends games:

Based on the graphic, which encompasses data from last season, I want to lean towards Preds point and shot props. However, when you only have one game to bet on, it is extremely tough to find lines that are favorable.

For example, I love betting Roman Josi shot props. The problem is, the only lines I’m seeing for him are o2.5 shots, -175 on DraftKings. Roman Josi was a beast last season, averaging 3.5 shots per game and an insane 7.3 shots per game against the Sharks. I was hoping for a o3.5 shot line, but it does not look like we’re going to get it. Over 2.5 shots is going to be EASY for Josi though, so if you have the balls, that feels like easy cash. (UPDATE: 4+ shots, +114 on FanDuel, have to take this!)

With only one game today and tomorrow, we are going to have to dig deeper for some solid plays. As the season moves along it’ll be easier to find plays, but for today I have two plays for you all.

Bet #1 – Ryan Johansen o0.5 points (+100, DK)

Ryan Johansen averaged 0.8ppg last season and hit on point props 57% of the time. The Predators played the Sharks three times last season and Johansen scored a point in each of those contests. If we drill down even further, we find out that in the last 15 games last season, Johansen had 1 point in 11 of them (73%).

Johansen plays center on the second line for the Predators and is on the 1^st Powerplay unit, so he will have his chances.

Bet #2 – Predators in Regulation (-108, Barstool)

It’s obvious who the better team is here. The Predators managed not to lose Filip Forsberg this offseason and also upgraded their defense, adding Ryan McDonagh. Juuse Saros is a phenomenal goaltender as well. This is a pretty simple bet – I think the Predators take this one in regulation.

Honorable Mention – Forsberg o3.5 shots (+115, DK)

I’m on the fence with this one. Filip Forsberg averaged 3.3 shots per game last season and averaged the same in games against the Sharks. He hit on o2.5 shot props 65% of the time, while hitting on o3.5 shots 42% of the time. Based on the stats, I’d be more inclined to take Forsberg shots if it was 02.5 rather than 03.5.

In games against the Sharks last year, the Predators averaged 34.3 shots per game, which was way higher than their overall average of 29.7 shots per game. I’ll probably lean towards not taking this bet, but I wanted to throw it out there since the line is quite favorable.

TLDR – Betting Summary

1. Ryan Johansen over 0.5 points (+100, DK)
2. Predators Regulation (-108, BS)
3. Roman Josi 4+ shots (+114, FD)

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