Weekly Recap: 8-9 (-1.7u)

Overall, it was a pretty back and forth week last week. I started off slow, but as the week progressed I think I finally started gaining a better feel for the games. I am expecting a much better week this week as we start to understand how these teams will play this season, compared to last.

Let’s dive right in to my official plays for the day! I have 3 plus-money plays for you all:

Bet #1 – Connor o2.5 Shots & Leafs Regulation Win (+110)

Kyle Connor had the 4th most shots in the league last season, trailing only Matthews, Ovechkin and Meier. He hits on over 2.5 shots at a 75% rate, with an average of 4 shots per game, 4.3 shots while on the road. He hit the over in his only game so far this season as well, tallying 4 shots on net.

The Leafs are playing arguably the worst team in the league in the Arizona Coyotes and they are home. As an early Stanley Cup favorite, I would be slightly concerned if the Leafs struggle in this game tonight.

Bet #2 – Rangers/Hurricanes in Regulation (+217)

Nothing too fancy about this bet. I like the Leafs, Rangers and Hurricanes all in regulation tonight, but for the purposes of hedging I have split those bets up. I pair the Rangers and Hurricanes here, while pairing the Leafs with Connor in my first bet. Yes, this is hockey where anything can happen, but I still like betting regulation wins for these more obvious games.

Bet #3 – Robertson/Rantanen o2.5 Shots (+186)

Jason Robertson’s hit rate on over 2.5 shots was 58% last year and he has hit in both of his game so far this year. He also averaged 5 shots per game against the Jets last season. I am very much targeting the Jets and Stars game today for shots and I like picking the hot hand in Robertson.

Mikko Rantanen’s hit rate on over 2.5 shots was 68% last season. He has hit that mark in 50% of his games this year. In a game where I expect a ton of goals to be scored, I believe Rantanen will easily hit the over tonight.

TLDR – Betting Summary

1. Connor o2.5 & Leafs in Regulation (+110) 2u
2. Rangers/Hurricanes in Regulation (+217) 1u
3. Robertson/Rantanen o2.5 Shots (+186) 1u

I am still on the fence for some plays, such as Kempe/Fiala for the Kings. I don’t want to be too greedy tonight since we have a long week ahead of us, so keep an eye on the twitter thread for this article, where I’ll throw out additional plays (if placed).

(Photo Creds – Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images)

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